Mortgage Interest Rates Today, September 20, 2024 | Will Mortgage Rates Keep Dropping? --[Reported by Umva mag]

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• Mortgage rates for September 20, 2024, remain near 5.60%, according to Zillow data.
• Now that the Fed has cut rates, mortgage rates may not drop much further in the near term.
• Once we get more data showing how the economy is evolving, we'll have a better idea of where rates will go next.

The Federal Reserve has finally started lowering the federal funds rate, cutting rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday. Mortgage rates dropped substantially in anticipation of this cut, and they remain low today.

Rates may hold steady in the near term until we get more data showing how the labor market is holding up. If it shows signs of weakening, the Fed may need to move more quickly to lower its benchmark rate, which could cause mortgage rates to go down.

But if the Fed doesn't lower rates as much as expected this year, mortgage rates may hold steady or even inch up. Right now, traders are betting that the federal funds rate could end the year 75 basis points below its current level. 

Because mortgage rates have dropped so much already, now could be a good time to buy a house. But rates are still expected to come down further, so it may also be worth waiting to see how low mortgage rates go. 

"Due to the already low mortgage rates compared to spring, the purchasing power for home buyers has been lifted by around $50,000 for those with a $2,000 monthly mortgage payment budget," National Association of Realtors chief economic Lawrence Yun said in a blog post reacting to the Fed's latest rate decision. "Consumers who were priced out due to earlier higher mortgage rates could now be back in the market."

Today's Mortgage Rates

Today's Refinance Rates

Mortgage Calculator

Use our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments:

By clicking on "More details," you'll also see how much you'll pay over the entire length of your mortgage, including how much goes toward the principal vs. interest.

30-Year Mortgage Rates

Average 30-year mortgage rates are holding steady around 5.60%, according to Zillow data. Rates have been trending down for several months now, and they averaged around 6.05% in August. 

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the most popular home loan. With this type of mortgage, you'll pay back what you borrowed over 30 years, and your interest rate won't change for the life of the loan.

The lengthy 30-year term allows you to spread out your payments over a long period of time, meaning you can keep your monthly payments lower and more manageable. The trade-off is that you'll have a higher rate than you would with shorter terms, like a 15-year mortgage. 

15-Year Mortgage Rates

Average 15-year mortgage rates inched down earlier this week and are now hovering just below 5%, according to Zillow data. In August, 15-year rates averaged 5.38%, but they've been trending lower so far this month.

If you want the predictability that comes with a fixed rate but are looking to spend less on interest over the life of your loan, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage might be a good fit for you. Because these terms are shorter and have lower rates than 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, you could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars in interest. However, you'll have a higher monthly payment than you would with a longer term.

ARM Rates

Rates on adjustable-rate mortgages have been slightly higher than fixed rates recently. Last month, the average mortgage rate for a 7/1 ARM was 6.17%, while the average rate for a 5/1 ARM was 6.22%, according to Zillow data. 

When you get an ARM, you'll have a fixed mortgage rate for a certain period of time, after which your rate will adjust periodically. On a 7/1 ARM, for example, your rate will stay fixed for seven years, and then adjust once a year after that until you pay off the loan or refinance.

ARM rates are often (but not always) lower than their fixed-rate counterparts, making an ARM a good deal if you're looking to save on your monthly mortgage payment. But the risk with an ARM is that your monthly payment could increase if rates are up when your rate starts adjusting. 

FHA Interest Rates

FHA interest rates were 5.03% last month, and they've been a bit lower in recent weeks.

FHA loans are insured by the Federal Housing Administration. This federal backing allows lenders to work with borrowers with lower credit scores and less money for a down payment, making these loans a good option for low-income and first-time homebuyers. They also typically have lower rates compared to conventional mortgages.

To get an FHA loan, you'll need a credit score of at least 580 and a down payment of 3.5%. If you can afford to put 10% down on a house, you could qualify for an FHA loan with a score down to 500, though not all lenders offer this option.

VA Mortgage Rates

Current VA mortgage rates are in the low 5% range, according to Zillow data. Last month, VA rates averaged 5.39%.

VA loans are available to veterans and military members who meet minimum service requirements. They're backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs, and require no down payment or mortgage insurance.

Mortgage Refinance Rates

Refinance rates have also been lower in September. Last month, 30-year refinance rates averaged 6.59%, while 15-year refinance rates were around 5.90%. But they've dropped even lower in recent weeks.

How Much Do Mortgage Rates Need to Drop to Refinance?

If you're wondering if you should refinance now that mortgage rates have dropped a bit, you'll need to crunch the numbers to see if it makes sense. Some experts advise only refinancing if you can reduce your rate by a percentage point or more, but it really comes down to whether it works for your individual circumstances.

If you can save enough each month by refinancing that you can recoup your costs in a reasonable amount of time, it might be worth it. You can calculate this by dividing your closing costs by the amount you're saving on your monthly mortgage payment. So, if you paid $3,000 to refinance and were able to lower your monthly payment by $200, it would take you 15 months to break even on your refinance. 

5-Year Mortgage Rate Trends

Here's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data.

What Factors Influence Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile.

While many of these factors are out of your control, you can work on improving your credit score, paying off debt, and saving for a larger down payment to ensure you get the best rate possible. 

How Does the Fed Rate Affect Mortgage Rates?

The Fed increased the federal funds rate dramatically in 2022 and 2023 to try to slow economic growth and get inflation under control. Inflation has since slowed significantly, but it's still a bit above the Fed's 2% target rate.

Mortgage rates aren't directly impacted by changes to the federal funds rate, but they often trend up or down ahead of Fed policy moves. This is because mortgage rates change based on investor demand for mortgage-backed securities, and this demand is often impacted by how investors expect Fed policy to affect the broader economy. 

The Fed recently decided to lower rates by 50 basis points. Mortgage rates trended down ahead of this decision, and they should continue to ease this year as the central bank cuts rates further. 

Mortgage Rate Projection for 2024

Mortgage rates are expected to go down throughout the rest of 2024, and they may continue dropping in 2025.

Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased dramatically in 2022 and throughout most of 2023. But now that inflation has decelerated and the Fed is expected to cut rates soon, mortgage rates have trended down. In the last 12 months, the consumer price index rose by 2.5%. This is a significant slowdown compared to when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022.

How much rates go down depends on how the economy evolves. If economic conditions remain stable, mortgage rates may not fall as much. But if the labor market weakens and the Fed has to cut rates more aggressively, we could see rates drop substantially.

Rates are unlikely to drop back down to the historic lows of 2020 and 2021, when 30-year fixed rates fell below 3%. But we could see them settle in close to 5% in the next few years.

When Will House Prices Come Down?

We aren't likely to see home prices drop this year. In fact, they'll probably rise.

Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 6.1% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 4.1% increase in 2024 and a 2.9% increase in 2025.

High mortgage rates pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. But rates have since eased, removing some of that pressure. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will likely push prices up.

How Much Mortgage Can I Afford?

A mortgage calculator like the one above can help you determine how much house you can afford. Play around with different home prices and down payment amounts to see how much your monthly payment could be, and think about how that fits in with your overall budget.

Experts often recommend spending no more than 28% of your gross monthly income on housing expenses. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income. But you should take a holistic look at your budget and see how a mortgage payment fits into that, so you aren't relying solely on rules of thumb.

The lower your rate, the more you'll be able to borrow, so shop around and get preapproved with multiple mortgage lenders to see who can offer you the best rate. But remember not to borrow more than what your budget can comfortably handle.

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