A stark warning reverberated from Washington, signaling a dramatic shift in the balance of power in the Caribbean. Former President Trump declared that the lifeline of Venezuelan oil and financial support flowing to Cuba was effectively cut off, following the apprehension of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces.
The message, delivered via a social media post, wasn’t a subtle suggestion but a direct pronouncement: Cuba’s years of reliance on Venezuelan resources were over. Trump urged the Cuban government to “make a deal, before it’s too late,” hinting at escalating pressure and a rapidly closing window for negotiation.
Cuba’s response was immediate and defiant. Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla asserted the nation’s sovereign right to secure oil from willing exporters, dismissing U.S. interference as “unilateral coercive measures.” He leveled a scathing accusation, portraying the United States as a reckless and destabilizing force threatening global peace and security.
This confrontation unfolded after a series of assertive actions by the U.S., including the seizure of a fifth oil tanker linked to Venezuela. These captures weren’t isolated incidents, but a clear demonstration of intent to control Venezuelan oil exports and orchestrate a “safe, proper and judicious transition” of power within the South American nation.
The implications for Cuba are profound. For over two decades, since a landmark agreement between Hugo Chávez and Fidel Castro in 2000, Cuba has heavily depended on Venezuelan oil. In the first ten months of 2025, more than half of Cuba’s fuel and crude oil imports originated from its South American ally, a dependency now thrown into jeopardy.
The situation is further complicated by the deep political and military ties between the two nations. The capture of Maduro reportedly resulted in the deaths of 32 Cuban soldiers and intelligence operatives, who had been integrated into Venezuela’s security apparatus, serving as bodyguards and counter-intelligence personnel.
The focus on Cuba isn’t new. U.S. officials, like Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have long viewed weakening the Cuban government as a key objective in the broader strategy for Venezuela. Now, with Maduro in U.S. custody, prominent Republicans are amplifying their rhetoric, signaling an impending challenge to the Cuban political establishment.
Speculation is rife that a regime change operation in Cuba is now imminent. However, such intervention would likely be met with fierce resistance. A Cuban Foreign Ministry official, speaking anonymously, vowed unwavering defense of national sovereignty, echoing the revolutionary slogan: “Homeland or Death.”
The Caribbean Sea has become a focal point of increased U.S. military presence in recent months, a visible signal of the escalating tensions. As the situation unfolds, the future of both Venezuela and Cuba hangs in the balance, poised on the brink of significant and potentially destabilizing change.
