The political forecast for 2028 is stark: Governor Gavin Newsom’s presidential ambitions are likely to crash and burn in the New Hampshire primary. Even Vice President Kamala Harris, despite her national experience, faces an uphill battle, unlikely to advance much further.
A recent NBC News poll, surveying 1,000 registered voters, reveals a critical weakness within the Democratic party itself. Both Harris and Newsom struggle with surprisingly low favorability ratings, even among their own Democratic base.
The numbers are unsettling for Newsom, with only 52 percent of Democrats viewing him positively. This suggests a fundamental disconnect – how can a candidate hope to unite a nation when they can’t even fully capture the support of their own party?
Kamala Harris fares somewhat better, boasting a 67 percent favorability among Democrats, but the gap highlights a clear preference within the party. However, this advantage doesn’t fully explain the situation.
Remarkably, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has never run a national campaign, mirrors Harris’s popularity, earning a similar favorable rating from nearly two-thirds of Democratic voters. This indicates voters are actively evaluating candidates beyond mere name recognition.
The data paints a concerning picture: at least one-third of Democratic voters find these leading contenders lacking. This internal division presents a significant hurdle for any potential Democratic nominee.
The situation worsens when compared to the Republican landscape. J.D. Vance, considered the front-runner for the Republican nomination, commands a 77 percent favorability rating among Republicans – a substantial 10-point lead over Harris and Ocasio-Cortez, and a staggering 25-point advantage over Newsom.
Beyond their own parties, both Harris and Newsom struggle to resonate with the broader electorate. Harris receives a 34 percent favorable rating versus 51 percent unfavorable, while Newsom’s numbers are even lower at 27 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable.
These individual ratings reflect the broader sentiment towards the parties themselves. Both the Republican and Democratic parties currently hold roughly the same negative rating among all voters – 51 percent and 52 percent respectively.
However, the GOP maintains a slight edge in favorable ratings, 37 percent compared to the Democrats’ 30 percent. This suggests a subtle, yet potentially crucial, advantage in public perception.
Even satisfaction with their own parties differs. Republican voters express a strong 77 percent favorable view of the GOP, while only 62 percent of Democrats feel the same way about their party. This internal dissatisfaction could fuel further division.
This NBC News poll isn’t an isolated case. Polling aggregates, like RealClearPolling, consistently show Republicans currently holding a six-point edge over Democrats in net favorability.
Interestingly, despite this current favorability gap, Democrats still lead in the generic 2026 midterm ballot by 4.4 percentage points. This suggests voters are critical of both parties, particularly regarding congressional performance.
Republicans undoubtedly face challenges, but the Democratic party’s predicament appears far more precarious. The task of presenting Harris, Ocasio-Cortez, or Newsom as viable presidential candidates feels increasingly daunting.
The data reveals a fundamental problem for the Democrats: their potential candidates struggle to inspire confidence, even within their own party. The hurdles facing Harris and especially Newsom appear monumental, based on the current political climate.
