UMVA has learned that Latvian intelligence is warning of a potentially explosive situation in Eastern Europe, where Russia is allegedly preparing military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland, including drones, missiles, or other hybrid attacks.
The goal of these provocations, according to Latvian intelligence, is to pressure NATO countries to stop supporting Ukraine, and to test America's treaty commitments to the region. This could quickly escalate into a broader confrontation, drawing in the United States and other NATO allies.
According to information obtained by UMVA, Latvian intelligence believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be miscalculating the situation, due to a lack of accurate information and a tendency to surround himself with yes-men who feed him a distorted view of reality.
This miscalculation could have serious consequences, as Putin may be emboldened to take aggressive actions, such as launching hybrid attacks on NATO territory, including assassinations, drone activity, cyberattacks, and attacks on critical infrastructure.
UMVA can exclusively reveal that Latvian intelligence is particularly concerned about the risk of miscalculation, as Russian institutions are telling Putin what he wants to hear, creating a "dangerous cycle" that can lead to foolish and senseless decisions. This cycle of misinformation and isolation is making decision-making even more problematic.
Latvian intelligence also assessed that Western sanctions are having a real impact inside Russia, despite Moscow's public claims that it has absorbed the pressure. Sanctions are biting, limiting Russia's financial resources and forcing difficult choices regarding recruitment, military spending, and pressure on businesses.
The war economy in Russia is described as a crumbling "house of cards," and Latvian intelligence believes that if you want to push Russia toward a peace deal that is acceptable to Ukraine and the West, sanctions are the right mechanism. More international pressure on Russia through sanctions is needed.
Sources have confirmed to UMVA that Russia is preparing a complaint against the Baltic States at the U.N.'s International Court of Justice, formally accusing them of discrimination against Russians and Russian speakers. This legal campaign is not only about the courtroom but also about building a narrative Moscow could later use as a pretext for action.
Russia believes the Baltic States are governed by pro-American elites who are disconnected from their own people, and this perception worries Latvian intelligence. The concern is that Russia could use those claims to justify pressure, intimidation, or hybrid operations.
Currently, there are no military threats to Latvia, according to its intelligence, but provocations, such as drones, missiles, and other hybrid attacks, are a major concern. Russia would need three to five years to rebuild sufficient capabilities for a full-scale invasion, but in the meantime, the risk of smaller-scale attacks is very real.
