The cellular IoT market is poised to reach 5.9 billion connections by 2035, with a diverse range of technologies driving growth, according to new research.
For device makers and connectivity providers, the next decade will be defined by a segmented technology mix, where cost, power consumption, network availability, and application requirements determine which radio access technology wins in each use case.
The forecast identifies three key technology areas as central to the expansion: 5G RedCap and eRedCap, 5G Massive IoT, and 4G LTE Cat-1bis modules. These technologies are expected to account for 65% of cellular IoT connections by 2035.
eRedCap is expected to be more successful than RedCap, due to its lower module prices and faster rollouts of 5G Standalone networks. The technology is expected to benefit from growing 5G SA network availability, allowing it to face fewer infrastructure constraints.
Regional dynamics remain uneven, with NB-IoT heavily weighted toward Asia and Oceania, and LTE-M expanding globally. This regional asymmetry is a significant integration issue for global device vendors, who must match technology portfolios to regional operator realities.
Regulation is also shaping the market, with Europe's Cyber Resilience Act driving structural change in the region. The Act mandates secure-by-design products with five-year vulnerability patching, accelerating adoption of eSIM, eUICC, and resilient SIM architectures.
In North America, the US Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act are supporting deployments in smart grids, utilities, and EV charging infrastructure, where ruggedized 4G and 5G modules are expected to see immediate demand.
The automotive sector is forecast to exceed 1 billion cellular IoT connections by 2035, with 89% of automotive modules using 5G technologies by that date. Cellular IoT procurement is becoming more application-specific, with utilities, EV charging operators, fleet platforms, automakers, and industrial equipment vendors weighing different technologies against deployment geography, expected device lifetime, security obligations, and available network infrastructure.
The forecast points to a larger ecosystem shift: cellular IoT growth through 2035 will depend on a wider set of optimized radio technologies, not a single dominant standard. This creates more flexibility for the market, but also more complexity for OEMs and connectivity providers that must support products over long lifecycles in uneven regional conditions.
