A new poll from New Hampshire indicates that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is gaining ground in a hypothetical 2028 GOP nomination matchup with Vice President JD Vance. Vance currently stands at 36% support among likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, with Rubio at 26%. This marks a significant shift from the previous poll, which showed Vance leading Rubio 53% to 7%.
The latest poll results suggest that Rubio has narrowed the gap in national polls and surveys conducted in key early-voting presidential primary states. This comes as Rubio's responsibilities and public profile have increased, including his role in the U.S. operation in Venezuela and the ongoing war against Iran. Rubio's rise in the 2028 polls this year is notable, given his close second-place finish to Vance in the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll earlier this year.
Other potential candidates, such as Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and former ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, trail behind Vance and Rubio, with 8% support each. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who also bid for the nomination in 2024, garnered 6% support, while all other candidates tested at 4% or less. According to a New Hampshire-based Republican consultant, the poll results make sense, as "there's nobody else in the conversation besides" Vance and Rubio.
The latest surveys and straw poll results have fueled intrigue over a potential rivalry between Rubio and Vance, who describe each other as friends. Trump has praised Rubio, calling him "the greatest secretary of state in history," and has also promoted a Vance-Rubio ticket as "unstoppable." However, Trump has not indicated who should lead the ticket, and Vance has built a political team of advisers in preparation for a potential presidential campaign.
Rubio, on the other hand, does not have a similar group of political aides, and has stated that he will support Vance if the vice president launches a 2028 campaign. Despite this, a group of GOP donors is quietly exploring ways to boost Rubio's political profile, which has not been well-received by some in the president's political orbit. The vice president has downplayed any potential conflict with Rubio, stating that "Marco is my closest friend in the administration" and that the media is trying to create a conflict where none exists.
Trump's influence on the 2028 GOP nomination race is expected to be significant, and an endorsement from the president would give a major boost to the candidate he backs. However, a longtime Republican strategist has warned that Vance's position is precarious, and that he will need to navigate a delicate balance to maintain Trump's support over the next two years.
