A significant shift is occurring in Canadian politics as the governing Liberals, led by Mark Carney, are extending their lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. New polling data reveals a widening gap, challenging the Conservative leader’s efforts to gain traction, particularly while he actively seeks support in the United States.
The latest numbers show the Carney Liberals commanding a substantial 45% of support among those surveyed. This places them a full 14 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, who currently stand at 31%. The New Democratic Party trails significantly in third place, registering only 8% support.
Smaller parties are further behind, with the Bloc Québécois at 6%, the People’s Party of Canada at 4%, and the Green Party bringing up the rear with just 3%. This stark contrast in numbers paints a clear picture of the current political landscape.
Political analysts are attributing the Liberal surge to what they’re calling the “Carney effect” – a boost in popularity following the Prime Minister’s high-profile speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. However, the initial momentum appears to be stabilizing.
The Liberal strength is particularly pronounced in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, regions that form the core of their current support. While Carney maintains a strong approval rating of 63%, a slight increase in disapproval – now at 33% – suggests the initial enthusiasm may be leveling off.
Despite a dip from earlier highs, Carney’s disapproval remains lower than its peak at the beginning of 2026. His strongest support continues to come from Atlantic Canada, where 70% of respondents approve of his performance, closely followed by Ontario at 68% and Quebec at 63%.
Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre faces an uphill battle in winning over Canadians. While his favourability has seen a slight increase to 38%, his unfavourability remains stubbornly high at 52%. This 14-point gap between positive and negative perceptions presents a significant obstacle for the Conservatives.
The challenge for Poilievre and his party lies in broadening their appeal beyond their existing base. The current data suggests they are struggling to connect with a wider range of voters, hindering their ability to close the gap with the leading Liberals.
The poll, conducted between March 2nd and 14th with a random sample of 1,000 adult Canadians, carries a margin of error of ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20. This provides a statistically significant snapshot of the current political mood across the country.
