The Trilateral Framework Agreement signed by the United States, Israel, and Lebanon has been hailed as a crucial step towards Middle East peace, but its success is far from guaranteed. The agreement aims to dismantle Hezbollah's terrorist infrastructure, restore Lebanon's sovereignty, and facilitate Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese territory.
The group's status as Iran's primary proxy force in the region has made durable peace impossible, and the agreement targets Iran's role in funding and supporting Hezbollah. The agreement commits Lebanon and the United States to preventing funds from flowing to any entity affiliated with non-state armed groups, which could significantly impact Hezbollah's operations.
Under the deal, Israeli forces will begin partially withdrawing from southern Lebanon, and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will assume security responsibility in their place. However, Hezbollah's founder has stated that the organization's funding, salaries, weapons, and missiles come directly from Iran, and the group has consistently prioritized deconfliction over disarmament.
Senior Lebanese officials have prioritized deconfliction with Hezbollah over disarmament, and LAF commanders have reportedly tipped off Hezbollah in advance of patrols and inspections. This has frustrated Israeli and U.S. officials and raises questions about the LAF's ability to confront Hezbollah's institutional entrenchment.
The disarmament process began in earnest after President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam took office in January 2025, with the government directing the LAF to draft a plan for a state monopoly over all weapons in Lebanon. However, Hezbollah's defiance has hindered progress, and the group has vowed to keep fighting until Israel withdraws from Lebanon.
Hezbollah's reach into Lebanese state institutions has compounded the problem, and the group has pressured the president of the military court to release detainees and warned against continuing legal proceedings against its operatives. The precedent from May 2008 remains instructive, as Hezbollah responded violently to the government's attempt to dismantle its private telecommunications network.
The June 26 Trilateral Framework Agreement reasserts the disarmament obligation with U.S. guarantees and a formal peace structure, but whether those guarantees can overcome Hezbollah's institutional entrenchment and stated refusal to disarm remains the central question. The success of the agreement will depend on the LAF's ability to confront Hezbollah's judicial network and the group's stated refusal to disarm.
