Premier Doug Ford couldn’t hide his amusement this week as whispers intensified about a potential challenger to his leadership. While overseeing the massive expansion of the Ontario Line subway, he dismissed the looming prospect of opponents with a wave of his hand, quipping he’d face anyone – even Mickey Mouse.
The source of the speculation? Reports suggest Navdeep Bains, a former federal Liberal cabinet minister, is seriously considering a run for the Ontario Liberal leadership. It’s a move that has many scratching their heads. Bains currently holds a high-powered, lucrative position at Rogers, complete with a substantial salary, bonuses, and exclusive perks.
Leaving that behind to lead a struggling third party at Queen’s Park presents a stark contrast. The financial sacrifice alone would be significant – a drop from a potential $500,000 to $1 million annual income to the $157,350 earned by MPPs. And the lifestyle change would be equally dramatic, trading corporate hospitality for strict ethical guidelines.
Adding to the complexity, Bains would initially lack a seat in the legislature, meaning his salary would depend on the financially strained Ontario Liberal Party. Yet, sources within the party indicate he’s actively building a team and was actively networking at the recent federal convention in Montreal. Several federal Liberals from the Greater Toronto Area are reportedly encouraging his bid.
Bains isn’t the only name in the mix. Beaches East York MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith has already declared his candidacy. Known as a progressive voice within his party, he previously served in Mark Carney’s cabinet and ran for the leadership in 2023, finishing second to Bonnie Crombie.
Some within the Liberal ranks view Erskine-Smith as a potential liability, fearing his left-leaning policies would alienate moderate voters and hand victory to Ford. A veteran Liberal strategist bluntly stated that an Erskine-Smith win would almost guarantee Ford’s re-election. The party is actively seeking a candidate who can broaden its appeal.
The Liberals face an uphill battle. Recent polls show Ford’s Progressive Conservatives with a comfortable lead – 44% support compared to the Liberals’ 30%. The NDP trails at 18%, with the Greens at 5%. A more centrist candidate like Bains could potentially attract suburban voters who have recently shifted towards Ford, but the question remains: why would he choose a path of lower pay and greater uncertainty?
Whoever ultimately leads the Ontario Liberal Party faces a monumental task. The party’s infrastructure is in disrepair, requiring a ground-up rebuilding effort. It’s a life of countless hours spent in community halls, at Rotary Club meetings, and county fairs – a relentless pursuit of connection across the province. It’s a challenge that will demand resilience, dedication, and a considerable amount of luck.
