The birth rate in the United States has hit historic lows, with the country's rate being "below replacement fertility since 2007." Scientists at the National Bureau of Economic Research have found a potential reason for the decline: the iPhone.
When the iPhone launched in 2007 and until 2011, AT&T was the only carrier for the phone. Researchers used this to isolate an iPhone-specific channel and compared birth rates in areas with a high AT&T customer base to areas where competitors were stronger.
The study's results show a correlation between iPhone users and the decline in birth rates, particularly in the 15- to 19- and 20- to 24-year-old age groups. Birth rates fell in the 15- to 19-year-old age group to 8 percent, and to 6.6 percent in the 20- to 24-year-old age group, respectively.
The researchers estimate that the diffusion of the iPhone explains 33-52 percent of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15-44. However, they note that the birth rate in the youngest age groups had already been declining before 2007, stabilized for a few years around that time, and then continued to fall.
Some experts suggest that the rise of the iPhone, or smartphones in general, may be more of a symptom than a cause of increasing urbanization in the U.S. and worldwide. The researchers conclude that while the iPhone is not the sole cause of the post-2007 decline, it did play a sizable role in the decline in U.S. births during the 2008–2011 window.
