A subtle but significant shift in sentiment is unfolding in the Philippines regarding its relationship with China. Recent data reveals a growing, though cautious, preference for Beijing, rising to 23.2% in 2026 – a notable increase from the previous year.
Despite this uptick, the Philippines remains the least inclined among Southeast Asian nations to fully align with China on foreign policy. Deep-seated security concerns, particularly those stemming from ongoing disputes in the South China Sea and the West Philippine Sea, continue to exert a powerful influence on public opinion.
The broader ASEAN region, however, is experiencing a reversal in sentiment. For the first time, China has surpassed the United States as the preferred partner, with 52% of ASEAN members favoring Beijing compared to 48% for Washington. This reflects China’s expanding economic reach and its increasing investment in regional infrastructure.
Indonesia leads the pack with an impressive 80.1% preference for China, followed closely by Malaysia and Singapore. This regional trend highlights the growing economic interdependence that is reshaping alliances and priorities across Southeast Asia.
Even with the increased preference for China, the Philippines continues to demonstrate a strong allegiance to the United States, maintaining a 76.8% preference. This enduring loyalty is rooted in decades of defense cooperation and a shared history, though even this figure represents a slight decrease from the previous year.
Experts suggest that the Philippine situation is a complex interplay of competing pressures. While economic considerations, including US tariffs, are prompting a reassessment of ties, the persistent maritime disputes with China remain a critical factor in shaping national sentiment.
The potential for geopolitical instability linked to US leadership, particularly the prospect of a return to power for Donald Trump, is also contributing to regional uncertainty. Southeast Asian leaders are carefully weighing the risks and benefits of relying on the US security umbrella.
Furthermore, the presence of US military installations within the Philippines raises concerns about potential exposure to regional conflicts. This delicate balance between security reliance and potential vulnerability adds another layer of complexity to the nation’s strategic calculations.
Recent events, such as the joint US and Israeli strike against Iran, were not captured in the survey data but are likely to further influence regional threat assessments and alliance dynamics. The evolving geopolitical landscape demands constant reevaluation of priorities and partnerships.
Ultimately, the Philippines finds itself navigating a challenging path, balancing the allure of economic opportunity with the imperative of safeguarding its national security interests. The nation’s future trajectory will depend on its ability to skillfully manage these competing pressures.
