Just over a month from now, Doug Ford will mark eight years as Premier of Ontario – a tenure many initially doubted would last. He’s navigated a complex political landscape, weathering storms and achieving unexpected longevity, particularly considering the challenges of his first year in office.
During his time leading the province, Ontario has experienced significant growth. The population has swelled by two million, and the provincial budget has increased by 54%. Contrary to common perception, the majority of this increased spending has been directed towards healthcare, with over 50 hospital projects initiated to build, expand, or modernize facilities.
Ford’s government has also launched ambitious infrastructure projects poised to benefit Ontario for generations. The Ontario Line subway in Toronto, alongside LRT expansions in Hamilton, Ottawa, and Mississauga, represent a commitment to long-term transportation solutions. Long-stalled highway projects, including the 413, the Bradford Bypass, and improvements to Highways 3, 7, 69, and the Garden City Skyway, are finally moving forward.
Despite these accomplishments, a troubling trend is emerging: Ford’s popularity is declining. Recent polling data reveals a statistical tie between his Progressive Conservative Party and the currently leaderless Liberal Party – 37% to 36%. The NDP trails at 17%, with the Greens at 5%.
A particularly concerning shift is evident among female voters. The latest polls show Ford’s support among women at 32%, while the Liberals command 42%. This represents a significant drop from the 2022 election, where he secured 38% of women’s votes compared to Bonnie Crombie’s 31%. Now, he’s losing ground to a party without a leader.
The desire for change is palpable. A substantial 72% of voters express some level of support for a new government, with only 28% favoring the continuation of the current PC leadership. This sentiment is echoed in polls conducted by Pallas Data and Liaison Strategies, all pointing to a weakening of Ford’s position.
Recent controversies, such as the proposed and then-abandoned jet purchase and alterations to freedom of information laws, have undoubtedly contributed to this decline. However, a deeper issue seems to be at play – a sense that the Ford government has lost its direction and purpose.
The fundamental question now facing Ford and his team is: why does he seek to remain Premier, and what does he hope to achieve? This is a question voters are actively pondering. A clear vision is crucial if he intends to pursue a fourth mandate.
Ford has historically benefited from facing weak opposition. In 2018, he capitalized on widespread dissatisfaction with Kathleen Wynne’s long-serving Liberal government. In 2022, he ran against an opposition preoccupied with the pandemic, as voters looked towards recovery. The 2025 election saw a chaotic Liberal campaign still grappling with the aftermath of the 2018 defeat.
However, by the likely 2029 election, Ford will have been in power for eleven years. As his campaign manager has observed, each year in office adds weight to the burdens of leadership. This accumulated time inevitably impacts public perception and voter response.
A turnaround is certainly possible, but it demands a compelling vision – a clear articulation of why Doug Ford deserves another term. Currently, that vision is absent, and its development is paramount to his future success.
