Democratic enthusiasm outpaces Republican interest in North Carolina’s upcoming Senate race, with 51% of Democrats reporting they are extremely interested in the midterms compared with 42% of Republicans.
A recent poll shows Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley 53% to 44% for the open Senate seat, a margin that widens to 15 points among voters who are extremely interested and 13 points among those extremely motivated to vote.
Cooper, former governor from 2017 to 2025, faces Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee, as they compete for the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Thom Tillis.
Cooper draws strong support from moderates, voters under 30, independents, college‑educated voters, women, and about one‑in‑five non‑MAGA Republicans, while Whatley performs best among very conservative voters, white evangelical Christians, white voters without a college degree, and rural residents.
Motivation to vote also differs: 84% of Cooper’s backers say they are voting for him, whereas only 52% of Whatley’s supporters cite support for their candidate, with 46% indicating they are voting mainly against Cooper.
Commitment remains high, with 81% of Cooper supporters and 77% of Whatley supporters saying they are certain to vote, yet roughly one‑in‑five voters say they could still switch their choice.
Former President Donald Trump’s standing adds complexity for Whatley; 40% of North Carolina voters view the former president favorably and 58% unfavorably, a net negative of 18 points, and 48% express concern about Whatley’s ties to Trump.
Concern over party establishment ties is more partisan: 42% of voters worry about Cooper’s Democratic connections, a sentiment held by 70% of Republicans but only 30% of independents and moderates.
Republican analysts estimate an average statewide advantage of about three points, but Cooper’s lead rests on near‑universal Democratic support and strong independent numbers, requiring Whatley to regain non‑MAGA Republican voters and improve his appeal among disaffected Carolinians.
Personal favorability also favors Cooper, who holds a 54% favorable rating versus Whatley’s 40%, and outpaces the Democratic Party by 12 points, while Whatley trails the GOP by four points.
Recognition gaps persist, with 14% of voters unable to rate Whatley or having never heard of him, including roughly one‑in‑ten Republicans.
Party favorability is evenly split, with 44% favorable versus 54% unfavorable for Republicans and 42% favorable versus 56% unfavorable for Democrats, reflecting strong negative partisanship on both sides.
Inflation emerges as the top issue for voters, cited by 36% as the most important factor in their Senate decision, followed by political division, healthcare, and immigration, each mentioned by roughly 13% to 14% of respondents.
Historical voting patterns show Democrats winning eight of the last ten gubernatorial contests, while Republicans have carried the state in eleven of the past twelve presidential elections, the most recent margin being a three‑point win for the Republican candidate in 2024.
The poll surveyed 1,005 registered North Carolina voters selected randomly from a statewide voter file, using live interviews on landlines and cellphones as well as online responses, with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points for the full sample.
