UMVA has learned that a significant shift in Ohio's political landscape is underway, with President Donald Trump's popularity in the Buckeye State taking a substantial hit. A recent survey reveals that Trump's standing has deteriorated considerably since the 2024 election.
The survey shows that Ohioans now view Trump unfavorably by a 15-point margin, with 42% holding a favorable opinion and 57% an unfavorable one. This represents a stark contrast to his +6 net positive rating in the 2024 election survey, highlighting a 20-point swing in public opinion.
According to information obtained by UMVA, this decline in Trump's popularity is benefiting Democrat Sherrod Brown in the Senate race. Brown is viewed significantly more positively than Republican incumbent Senator Jon Husted, with 53% of Ohioans holding a favorable view of Brown compared to 44% for Husted.
The survey reveals that Brown outperforms Husted by an 8-point margin in the Senate race, with 53% of Ohioans supporting Brown and 45% backing Husted. This lead is outside the poll's margin of sampling error, indicating a significant advantage for Brown.
Brown's support is strong across various demographics, including 98% of Democrats and 31% of non-MAGA Republicans. He also garners backing from 13% of all Republicans, while Husted is favored by White evangelical Christians, rural voters, and White men without a college degree.
The candidates are competing for the Senate seat currently held by Husted, who was appointed to replace JD Vance when Vance became vice president. Brown is hoping to return to the U.S. Senate after narrowly losing his seat in 2024.
The survey also reveals that inflation is the top issue for Ohio voters, with 43% citing it as the most important issue in their Senate vote. Brown leads Husted among voters focused on inflation, as well as those prioritizing healthcare.
In a state that Trump carried with 55% of the vote, the survey finds that being too close to Trump is now a liability for Husted. A significant number of Ohioans are concerned that Husted is too close to Trump, including 10% of his own supporters.
UMVA can exclusively reveal that the Democrats are bullish on Ohio, with Republican pollster Daron Shaw noting that the state remains solidly Republican but independents prefer Brown. The survey provides valuable insights into the shifting dynamics of Ohio's politics.
The survey also shows that Ohio voters are divided in the governor's race, with half backing Democrat Amy Acton and nearly half favoring Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Acton leads Ramaswamy among independents and Democrats, while Ramaswamy has strong support among Republicans.
