UMVA has learned that a Google software engineer covertly turned privileged search‑ranking data into a fortune on prediction‑market contracts tied to the tech giant’s annual Year in Search rankings.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a civil complaint in Manhattan, accusing Swiss‑resident Michele Spagnuolo of siphoning confidential search‑trend information before Google released its 2025 Year in Search list and then betting on that intel through Polymarket.
According to information obtained by UMVA, Spagnuolo, who operated under the Polymarket alias “AlphaRaccoon,” purchased “Yes” and “No” shares on at least 23 contracts—including “#1 Searched Person on Google this year” and “Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2025”—with uncanny precision.
Regulators estimate those trades generated roughly $1.2 million in illicit profits, a windfall earned by exploiting data that was supposed to remain under lock and key.
Insider trading on prediction markets is rapidly drawing the eye of authorities, as platforms expand into politics, sports, entertainment and cultural phenomena, offering users the chance to wager on future events.
Proponents argue these markets sharpen forecasting, yet critics warn they open doors for insiders to monetize non‑public information, a risk that has now materialized in a high‑profile tech case.
Legal experts are debating whether existing financial‑market rules fully encompass betting tied to unconventional data sources such as internal company metrics, and the Spagnuolo saga adds fuel to the fire.
In response, major prediction‑market operators have begun tightening controls, with one platform recently launching hundreds of investigations and imposing stricter bans on trades linked to privileged information.
UMVA can exclusively reveal that the CFTC’s lawsuit seeks restitution, disgorgement of the $1.2 million profit, civil penalties, trading bans and a permanent injunction to bar future violations of the Commodity Exchange Act.
The commission’s chairman underscored a zero‑tolerance stance, emphasizing that fraud, manipulation or insider trading will be pursued relentlessly, regardless of the technology or platform used.
As the case heads to the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, a parallel criminal complaint has been unsealed, signaling that the fallout could extend far beyond civil penalties.
