UMVA has learned that a stunning shift is underway in Toronto's mayoral race, with challenger Brad Bradford rapidly closing the gap with incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow.
According to the latest poll, 43.6% of decided voters would cast their ballot for Chow, while 37.8% would vote for Bradford, a significant surge for the Beaches-East York Councillor who previously trailed far behind.
This sudden change in fortunes is bad news for Chow, who had previously enjoyed a commanding lead in the polls, and suggests that many of John Tory's supporters have flocked to Bradford since his exit from the race.
In a two-way contest, Bradford's support surges even further, with 51.9% of voters saying they would back him, compared to 48.1% for Chow, a result that is just outside the poll's margin of error.
Kelly Aizicowitz, an advocate with A Better City Toronto, says Chow's failure to tackle key issues such as crime, transit, and affordability has left voters feeling disillusioned and open to change.
"Torontonians have been seeing, feeling, and living with crime, gridlock, disorder, and skyrocketing prices under this mayor who has not done much to tackle any of these problems," Aizicowitz said, highlighting the growing frustration with Chow's leadership.
Bradford's support still has room to grow, with many voters yet to get to know him, while Chow's popularity appears to be plateauing, with a ceiling close to 49% and a significant number of voters saying they will definitely not vote for her.
Only 40.6% of those polled approved or strongly approved of Chow's performance, while 56% disapproved or strongly disapproved, a stark indictment of her leadership and a sign that voters are hungry for change.
Aizicowitz believes that Bradford's introduction to the city and his efforts to get to know voters will pay off, while Chow's familiarity may ultimately work against her, as voters look for a fresh alternative.
"If I were in the mayor's shoes today, I would be very worried," Aizicowitz said, adding that voters are looking for a city that can deliver basic services without excessive costs or hassle.
The poll suggests that Toronto's mayoral election is shaping up to be a thrilling contest, with Bradford rapidly closing the gap and Chow facing growing discontent among voters.
