OTTAWA — After years of distrust and accusations,tense relations between Canada and Indiaare starting to defrost.
On Wednesday, reports surfaced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended Prime Minister Mark Carney an invitation to his country for talks — further signs that relations between the two nations are normalizing.
But are these overtures two long-time allies mending fences, or is this reconciliation more about strategy and pragmatism?
“The (Hardeep Singh) Nijjar investigation continues, and it should, but Carney’s showing that defending Canadian values doesn’t mean cutting off dialog,” Alan Kessel, former Canadian diplomat and Macdonald-Laurier Institute senior fellow, told the Toronto Sun about theshifting relations between the two nations.
Trudeau’s accusations against India
Relations with India soured two years ago after former prime minister Justin Trudeau rose in the House of Commons to publicly accuse Modi’s government of orchestrating the June 2023 assassination of Nijjar — a prominent Sikh separatist — in the parking lot of a B.C. gurdwara.
That led to a spat thatprompted both nations to expel diplomats, close consulates, and end ongoing free trade talks.
The thaw began, Kessel said, afterCarney invited Modi to attend this summer’s G7 summitin Alberta, prompting both nations to reopen diplomatic relations.
“It was a clear signal that Canada was back to engaging and not isolating,” he said.
“The lesson from theMeng Wanzhou and the Two Michaels ordeal was simple — when you’re frozen out, you lose leverage.”
And in the midst of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war, Kessel said it makes no sense for vulnerable Canada to be embroiled in diplomatic cold wars with India, China, and the United States.
“It’s an easy rapport with Trump when they’re part of the same strategy, but making sure that Canada isn’t left out of the rooms where decisions are made is really key,” Kessel said.
Canada, India are major global partners
The spat between Canada and Indiaalso sparked trade tensions.
According to Global Affairs Canada, India was Canada’s seventh-largest trade partner, with two-way commerce between the two nations amounting to just under $31 billion.
Merchandise exports to India increased 3.3% from 2023 to 2024, worth roughly $5.3 billion — with imports from India to Canada worth around $8 billion, a 7% increase from the year previous.
Canada’s top export to India was vegetables, followed by mineral fuels and oil, wood pulp, fertilizer and paper. India’s top exports to Canada were pharmaceuticals, machinery, electronics, precious stones and metals, and iron products.
Canada is also an important provider of pulse to India — which consumes five million more tons of peas, beans and other legumes than it produces.
And withChina’s trade action against Canadaputting one of our most valuable export products at risk, increased trade with India is seen as vital for Canada’s agriculture sector — not to mention furthering Carney’s recent push to double non-U.S. exports by 2035.
“(Carney) may not be chasing friendships, he’s essentially managing power,” Kessel said.
“Engagement is how you protect Canadians and shape outcomes, and you can’t do that from the penalty box.”
