A shadow hangs over Thanksgiving and Christmas leave for US troops stationed in the Caribbean. The White House is preparing for escalated operations, potentially including land strikes, disrupting holiday plans and signaling a dramatic shift in strategy towards Venezuela.
Operation Southern Spear, led by General Dan Caine, has already concentrated military forces in the region, initially focused on stemming the flow of drugs into the United States. Now, the mission is expanding to include covert operations directly targeting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, marking a new phase in what officials are calling a “war on drugs.”
The stakes are rising rapidly. The US Federal Aviation Administration has issued warnings to airlines about a “potentially hazardous situation” over Venezuela, fueling concerns of a broader conflict. Potential targets include facilities linked to Maduro’s regime and powerful criminal organizations.
The White House has leveled serious accusations, designating Maduro as the head of the Cartel de los Soles, a group officially labeled a foreign terrorist organization. Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserts the cartel is “responsible for terrorist violence” throughout the Western Hemisphere, intensifying the justification for intervention.
However, data paints a more complex picture. A 2020 report from the US Drug Enforcement Administration indicated that only a small percentage – 8% – of cocaine entering the country arrives by boat through the Caribbean. Despite this, the Trump administration remains resolute in its efforts to halt drug trafficking.
Rumors of a desire for regime change in Venezuela have circulated for some time, with Maduro himself accusing the US of “fabricating a new eternal war.” The presence of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, in Caribbean waters underscores the seriousness of the situation and the ongoing strikes against “drug-trafficking boats.”
While a full-scale war remains unlikely, the current deployment of US air and naval forces suggests a high probability of concentrated airstrikes should tensions escalate. Though troop levels are currently insufficient for a large-scale land invasion, Maduro’s military faces potential challenges due to aging weaponry.
The legality of recent US actions is under intense scrutiny. Multiple fatal strikes against boats in Venezuelan waters, justified by claims of drug trafficking, have sparked international debate. Reports suggest at least 76 people have been killed in these operations, prompting accusations of violating international law.
UK officials and the UN Human Rights Chief have voiced concerns, labeling the strikes as “extrajudicial killings.” This represents a stark departure from traditional methods of drug interdiction, which previously involved coordinated efforts between the Coast Guard and law enforcement to intercept, board, and seize illegal shipments.
The current approach, as described by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is far more direct: “blow them up, get rid of them.” This shift is further complicated by the US not being a signatory to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which governs conduct in international waters and generally prohibits interference with vessels unless in “hot pursuit” – and even then, only with non-lethal force.
