UMVA has learned that a surprise by-election dynamic is emerging in the UK, with a hard-right party potentially playing a crucial role in determining the outcome.
According to information obtained by UMVA, two new polls suggest that the Restore candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, could be siphoning off support from Reform's Robert Kenyon, rather than Labour's Andy Burnham, in the Makerfield constituency.
A recent survey puts Restore on 8% with Burnham on 45% and Kenyon on 40%, while another poll has Burnham on 46% and Kenyon on 41%, with Shepherd on 7%. This could signal trouble ahead for Nigel Farage's Reform party as it faces a serious threat from its right-wing rival.
The polls indicate that Restore could be the difference between Reform winning or not winning, according to election guru Sir John Curtice. This development has raised concerns among Reform party bosses, who have acknowledged the existence of Restore for the first time.
Allies of Burnham, who is currently serving as the Mayor of Greater Manchester, are cautiously optimistic about his chances of coming out on top in the by-election. A win for Burnham could have significant implications for his potential challenge to Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Prime Minister.
The by-election has been described as one of the most consequential in recent British history. Burnham's victory could set him up for a potential leadership challenge, while a loss could have significant repercussions for the Labour party.
It remains unclear if all those planning to vote for Restore would otherwise be voting for Reform or simply staying at home. However, one thing is certain: the outcome of this by-election will have far-reaching implications for British politics.
