A subtle shift is occurring in the national political landscape as spring arrives in the capital. While the ruling party, led by Mark Carney, maintains a comfortable lead, their support has dipped slightly, yet remains firmly in double digits over the opposition.
The latest poll reveals the Carney Liberals at 44% support, with the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives trailing at 33%. The New Democratic Party continues to struggle for traction, holding steady at 9%, despite a recent leadership change that failed to ignite momentum.
Smaller parties carve out niche support, with the Bloc Québécois at 5%, and both the Greens and the People’s Party of Canada garnering 2% each. A significant 12% of voters currently favor other parties, indicating a degree of political fluidity.
The Liberals’ strength is concentrated in key regions, particularly Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, providing a solid foundation for their continued dominance. However, the Conservatives haven’t been able to capitalize in these crucial battlegrounds.
The Conservatives find their strongest support base in Alberta, where they command 43% of the vote, surpassing the Liberals’ 29%. They also perform well in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, though their lead over the Liberals in those provinces is minimal, only 1%.
The gap widens dramatically in Ontario and Quebec. In Quebec, the Liberals enjoy 34% support, double the Conservatives’ 17%. Ontario presents a similar picture, with the Liberals leading at 46% compared to the Conservatives’ 30%.
Atlantic Canada and British Columbia also lean heavily towards the Liberals, with 41% support in both regions, while the Conservatives struggle to reach 33% in B.C. and 30% in Atlantic Canada.
Despite remaining popular, Prime Minister Carney’s approval rating has experienced a slight decline, falling from 64% to 61%. Interestingly, this dip hasn’t translated into increased disapproval.
Instead of shifting towards disapproval, more Canadians are expressing uncertainty about the Prime Minister’s performance. Disapproval remains unchanged at 32%, while the number of undecided voters has risen from 5% to 8%.
A similar pattern is emerging for Pierre Poilievre. While his unfavorability rating has decreased from 57% to 50%, this hasn’t necessarily boosted his favorability. The shift is largely reflected in a growing number of Canadians who are unsure about his leadership.
Currently, Poilievre’s unfavorability sits at 50%, compared to a 38% favorability rating, with 8% remaining undecided. This suggests a complex and evolving public perception of the opposition leader.
This snapshot of public opinion was captured between March 23 and April 4, 2026, through a poll of 1,000 Canadians. The results carry a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
