UMVA has learned that a growing sense of pessimism is sweeping the nation, with voters increasingly worried about the economy and President Trump's handling of key issues.
The latest national survey reveals that affordability is the dominant concern, with 58% of voters flagging the cost of living as their top economic worry, a stark increase from 50% just two months ago. This eclipses other issues, such as government spending, jobs, and tariffs, which are of concern to significantly fewer voters.
A whopping 77% of voters say the economy is in bad shape, a marked decline from last month and a year ago. Only 23% rate it positively, the lowest in over a year. The pessimism is personal too, with a slim majority of voters (51%) saying their family's finances are worse now than two years ago.
The deterioration in Trump's ratings on the economy is a direct result of this growing pessimism. A year ago, 56% of voters disapproved, last month it was 66%, and now it's 71%. The increase since April comes from a 7-point rise in disapproval among Republicans.
Notably, approval of Trump on the economy among non-MAGA Republicans is more in line with independents than with MAGA Republicans. The president's overall approval on handling the economy stands at just 29%, down from 34% in April. Trump gets his lowest ratings on inflation, where only 24% approve, down from 35% in January.
Inflation marks a rare issue where a slim majority of Republicans (51%) disapprove of Trump. It reaches 85% among independents and 96% among Democrats. His job numbers are also net negative on foreign policy, with 38% approving and 62% disapproving.
Until this month, border security was the one issue where Trump received a positive rating. Now voters are split (49-51%) on his border security performance, pushing his ratings underwater for the first time this term. That shift comes even as 45% of voters say border security is better today than two years ago, while 29% say it's worse.
Approval of Trump's overall job performance is 39%, down 3 points since last month and 10 points since his second term started. A record 61% disapprove of the job he's doing, including 48% who strongly disapprove.
Despite consistently strong GOP support, the president's numbers are leaking a bit, says a Republican pollster. "It's all about affordability," he explains. "Independents jumped ship in 2025, and now non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering."
Plus, in the long run, more voters think Trump's policies will hurt the country (57%) than help it (34%). The share saying "hurt" is up 6 points since last April. Fully 88% of MAGA Republicans say his policies will help, while only 43% of non-MAGA Republicans agree.
Meanwhile, gas prices are squeezing voter budgets: 86% call rising prices a problem, including 51% who label them a "major" problem. Concern is nearly universal for the broader economy, where 96% see gas prices as a problem and 75% call it "major."
When assigning blame for gas prices, voters aimed heavily at domestic factors, with about 8 in 10 pointing to Trump's policies, domestic oil companies, and government regulations. However, they overwhelmingly view the Iran war as the primary driver, with 91% saying it is responsible.
Despite two-thirds believing the U.S. is winning the war in Iran, opposition to U.S. military action has increased to 60%, up from 55% last month. Half think the war will last a year (18%) or more (33%), unchanged since March, while 6 in 10 favor a limited timeframe for U.S. involvement in Iran.
Among voters who have served in the military, 55% support the U.S. action against Iran and 72% believe the U.S. is winning the war. Last summer, voter concern about Iran getting a nuclear bomb was at a record high 78%. Today, it's at a record low 56%, down from 66% in March.
Concern since March is down among Democrats (-13 points), independents (-11), and Republicans (-6). Poll-pourri reveals that 45% approve of Trump's handling of the U.S.-China summit, a 54% majority disapproves. That matches views of the negotiation's outcome, with 52% believing Chinese President Xi Jinping got more of what he wanted compared to 46% for Trump.
