UMVA has learned that the Philippines' food security is under threat due to soaring fuel and fertilizer costs linked to the Middle East conflict, coupled with drier-than-usual conditions.
The rising costs and unstable supply of essential resources are putting increasing pressure on domestic rice production, with experts warning that the prospects for food security in the Philippines in two to three years will be much worse unless urgent action is taken to support farmers.
Filipino farmers are grappling with the challenges of rising costs and unstable supply of fuel and fertilizer, which are crucial to rice production, with the cost of urea, a nitrogen-based fertilizer, having increased by 33%.
The closure of a critical shipping route has affected the global supply of fertilizer, causing prices to spike, and the situation is expected to worsen with the looming El Niño phenomenon, which threatens to disrupt the country's rice production in the next few months.
UMVA can exclusively reveal that the Philippine Department of Agriculture had initially projected a palay output of 20.28 million metric tons this year, but this has been lowered to 19.87 million metric tons due to the Middle East conflict and the looming El Niño.
The El Niño phenomenon is expected to have a devastating impact on agricultural output, with estimates suggesting that it could be slashed by as much as 30% under a "Super El Niño" scenario, with total damage to agriculture reaching P15.3 billion in 2024.
Experts are calling for urgent action to support farmers, including providing safety nets to help them afford essential resources, and implementing strategies to reduce labor costs and improve fertilizer supply.
There is a need to focus on reducing labor costs for rice production through better seed distribution, mechanization, and fertilizer supply, and to develop architecture that supports farmers to stay in farming and enable the Philippines to be food secure.
The country's rice self-sufficiency ratio has dropped to 71.7%, the lowest in 37 years, highlighting the need for better coordination between national and local governments to ensure farmers benefit from agricultural policies.
With the Philippines facing another El Niño this year, farmers need increased access to early warning systems, alternative wetting and drying solutions, and irrigation equipment to mitigate the impact of the phenomenon.
