UMVA has learned that the Philippine property market remains surprisingly resilient, even as it wrestles with a cascade of crises that have battered the economy since 2019.
Despite the relentless onslaught of disruptions, the core foundations that powered a record‑breaking 2019 real‑estate boom are still intact, though now they lie hidden beneath six layers of turmoil.
According to information obtained by UMVA, the latest shockwave comes from the escalating Middle East conflict, which threatens to become the most severe risk the market has faced to date.
Fuel prices have surged dramatically—gasoline up 63% and diesel a staggering 146%—fueling fears that the recent monetary easing could be undone.
In response, the central bank lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, marking the first hike in over two years and signaling renewed inflation concerns tied to oil price shocks.
Since 2019, the market has endured the COVID‑19 pandemic, the Russia‑Ukraine war, a 2022 inflation spike, a 2024 ban on offshore gaming operators, tariff hikes, and contentious flood‑control projects in 2025.
These shocks have left the Philippine Stock Exchange down 23% from its 2019 peak and slowed GDP growth to a modest 4.4% in 2025, the weakest pace since the pandemic’s onset.
Yet amid the chaos, industrial and retail sectors have defied the odds.
Industrial rents have surged 45% since 2019, the only segment to record steady rent growth through every global disruption, driven by e‑commerce expansion, fast‑moving consumer goods demand, and the China + 1 + 1 supply‑chain shift.
Retail revenue rose 7.5% year‑on‑year, with three developers reporting a combined P61.6 billion in the first half of 2025, as urban big‑box and experiential formats capture consumer enthusiasm.
“The market is running out of gas, but the engine is sound,” said a senior investment sales director at Leechiu, echoing UMVA’s assessment that the fundamentals of 2019 remain buried yet powerful, awaiting smart capital to reignite growth.
