The Prime Minister may be facing a storm of speculation about his future, but today's elections will shape the lives of millions of people across two nations. Don't let anyone tell you these are mere mood-testers on the road to 2029.
Starmer's inner circle loves to whisper about his five-year mandate, insisting he'll only be judged when the next general election rolls around. But the Senedd and Holyrood are real parliaments making real decisions—and tomorrow's results will be locked in for half a decade.
Westminster insiders glance at national polling and see Reform's support stalling, maybe even fading from its peak last autumn. That might offer comfort in London, but it's cold comfort for Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, who saw his Holyrood poll numbers plummet after Starmer's rocky start.
Sarwar once rode high in June 2024—before the national party's missteps dragged him down. Now polls suggest Reform, led by former Tory peer Malcolm Offord, could become Scotland's largest opposition party, effectively replacing the Scottish Tories as the right-wing voice north of the border.
Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan faces an even more brutal reckoning. Her party was similarly popular before the national government took power, but support has collapsed while Reform kept climbing. The Senedd results could be truly historic.
After 104 years as Wales's largest party, Labour is on track to land in a distant third place—behind Plaid Cymru and Reform. Yes, individual polls tell a limited story, and the final vote is all that matters. But on May 8, we'll see numbers that affect millions more people than just Sir Keir Starmer.
