China has launched a ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into the Pacific Ocean, a move that has raised concerns about its sea-based nuclear capabilities. The launch, which was described as a routine annual training exercise, highlights one of the Pentagon's biggest long-term concerns: China's ability to field a more survivable nuclear force capable of threatening the US and its allies from the sea.
The missile, carrying a dummy warhead, was fired from a Type 094 Jin-class ballistic missile submarine, according to the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy. The launch demonstrates one of the most survivable elements of a country's nuclear arsenal, as the vessels are significantly harder to detect and destroy before they can launch a retaliatory strike.
The growing capability also means China could eventually threaten the US homeland from a wider range of patrol areas, reducing the need for its submarines to venture into more vulnerable waters. Chinese officials have said the launch landed in a designated area of the Pacific Ocean and was conducted in accordance with international law.
NATO leaders are expected to address the growing strategic challenge posed by China at their upcoming summit in Ankara, Turkey. In recent years, NATO has expanded its engagement with Indo-Pacific partners, reflecting concerns that security in Europe and the Pacific is increasingly interconnected.
New Zealand claimed the missile landed in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, where testing atomic weapons is prohibited. However, China said the missile carried a dummy rather than a nuclear warhead, and New Zealand did not accuse Beijing of violating the relevant treaty.
Australia's foreign minister, Penny Wong, said China had informed Australia ahead of the test but added that the country regards it as destabilizing to the region. Wong described China's rapid military buildup as "lacking in the transparency and reassurance as to intent that the region expects."
Japan raised "serious concern over the intensification of China's military activities" and urged China to reconsider its actions. The Pentagon has repeatedly warned that China is rapidly modernizing and expanding its nuclear forces, projecting that Beijing will continue increasing the size, sophistication, and survivability of its arsenal through the next decade.
China's military has also expanded naval patrols beyond the first island chain while increasing military pressure on Taiwan and asserting territorial claims in the South China Sea. The Pentagon projects that China will field more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, up from an estimated stockpile in the low 600s through 2024.
The U.S. has maintained a sea-based nuclear deterrent for decades through its fleet of Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines, which routinely conduct operational deterrent patrols and periodic test launches of Trident II D5 ballistic missiles. The Navy is now replacing those submarines with the next-generation Columbia class, which is expected to begin entering service later this decade.
