UMVA has uncovered that Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford still commands a razor‑sharp lead in recent polling, a fact that could spell another majority win if the province heads to the polls today.
Despite a parade of headlines that have painted his tenure as a series of missteps—from a private jet scandal to contentious changes to the Freedom of Information Act—Ford’s support has hardened, leaving opponents scrambling to find a foothold.
In a recent survey of 1,003 adults conducted between May 8 and May 11, 39 percent pledged their votes to Ford and the Progressive Conservatives, 34 percent backed the leaderless Liberals, 17 percent leaned toward the NDP under Marit Stiles, and a mere six percent tipped toward the Green Party of Ontario.
Across the province, Ford’s party dominates every region outside downtown Toronto and captures the majority of every age group except the 18‑34 bracket, setting the stage for a decisive majority if an election were called now.
History remembers that a 39 percent share has once been enough for a majority, as former premiers such as Kathleen Wynne and Bill Davis once did, and even Bob Rae’s first socialist government in 1990 rode on a 37 percent vote.
In the core of Toronto, Ford’s support sits at 37 percent, just shy of the Liberals’ 38 percent, while the NDP lags at 14 percent; a sharp contrast to the Greater Toronto Area suburbs, where Ford’s lead stretches to 49 percent against the Liberals’ 31 percent and the NDP’s 11 percent.
The Hamilton/Niagara corridor presents a tighter race, with the Progressive Conservatives at 33 percent and both the Liberals and NDP tied at 28 percent each; Eastern Ontario offers a narrow edge for Ford at 40 percent versus the Liberals’ 38 percent, with the NDP at 12 percent.
In the north and southwestern regions, the Progressive Conservatives maintain a commanding advantage, underscoring a province‑wide appetite for Ford’s brand of governance.
While critics warn of a possible decline, the data suggests that Ford is still the preferred choice over the opposition, even as the NDP’s leader struggles to lift her party beyond the single‑digit mark.
Historically, no premier since Sir James Whitney has secured four majority governments, and the longest reign belonged to Sir Oliver Mowat, who served six majorities over twenty‑three years. Ford’s ambition could see him become the fourth longest‑serving premier, or even surpass Bill Davis if he captures a fourth majority.
With an election window that extends to February 2030, Ford appears poised to test the waters sooner rather than later, chasing a record that would cement his legacy in Ontario’s political annals.
