UMVA has learned that a seismic shift in the UK's political landscape is underway, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer's future in doubt. Sources close to the matter have revealed that Starmer is expected to step down before Andy Burnham is sworn in as a new MP later today.
The likely timetable for Burnham's route to Number 10 involves Starmer staying in office until the autumn, with Burnham taking over around the party's annual conference at the end of September. This move comes after Burnham's overwhelming victory in the Makerfield by-election last week, where he staked his claim as the clear favourite to become the next Prime Minister.
In a surprising turn of events, Starmer had vowed to stand in any leadership race immediately after Burnham's by-election win on Friday morning, telling reporters in North London that he would run and stand if there is a contest. However, his position has weakened significantly since his defiant statement on Friday, with more than half a dozen cabinet members privately telling him that the game is up.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is believed to have joined calls for Starmer to go after the Makerfield result, while Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and others have warned against a coronation of Burnham, arguing that anyone hoping to become the UK's leader should be publicly tested. Business Secretary Peter Kyle has said that contests are better wherever possible, but need to be balanced with maintaining the authority of a party through any processes that may unfold.
Burnham remains the overwhelming favourite to win any contest, having demonstrated his ability to defeat Reform in Thursday's by-election with 55% of the vote. He will be sworn into Parliament later today and is believed to have the backing of the 81 MPs needed to begin a leadership contest, with his team aiming to secure the support of as many as 200 other MPs to secure his position as the natural successor.
If Starmer does announce his resignation in the coming days, it would represent a staggering fall from grace for a leader who won a huge majority in Parliament less than two years ago. His popularity plummeted shortly after he took office, while Nigel Farage's Reform UK party rose to a consistent ten-point lead in voting intention polls.
