The fate of the governing party hung in the balance late Monday as votes were tallied in three crucial by-elections. The ridings of Scarborough Southwest and University—Rosedale in Toronto, alongside Terrebonne, Quebec, held the key to whether the Liberals could secure a majority in the House of Commons.
A single victory would tip the scales, granting the Liberals outright control and streamlining the passage of legislation. A sweep of all three seats would solidify their power, diminishing the need for tie-breaking votes from the Speaker and easing the path for their agenda.
The push for a majority has been fueled by a recent influx of MPs crossing the floor to join the Liberal ranks. Four Conservatives and a former New Democrat have abandoned their parties in recent months, swelling the Liberal caucus to 171 seats – just one shy of the 172 needed for a majority in the 343-seat House.
These defections haven’t been without controversy, sparking accusations of clandestine “backroom deals.” Allegations resurfaced Monday with a Conservative MP claiming the Liberals were actively attempting to recruit him, a claim swiftly denied by a Liberal representative.
The Toronto ridings were widely considered safe Liberal territory, becoming vacant after two prominent cabinet ministers departed for international roles. Former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned from University—Rosedale to advise Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy on economic development, while Bill Blair, the former Toronto Police chief, left Scarborough Southwest to become Canada’s High Commissioner to the U.K.
Freeland’s departure marked the end of her tenure representing the riding since 2015, and Blair’s exit ended his eleven-year representation, creating an opportunity for new leadership in both constituencies.
However, the most fiercely contested battle unfolded in Terrebonne, Quebec. The riding’s history is fraught with electoral drama, having been won by the Liberals by a mere single vote in the previous general election – a result later overturned by the Supreme Court due to issues with mail-in ballots.
Advance polling in Terrebonne saw a 20% turnout, and the Liberals poured resources into the riding, deploying staff, Quebec ministers, and high-profile figures to champion their candidate, Tatiana Auguste. She faced a strong challenge from Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagne, the Bloc Quebecois candidate who previously held the seat from 2021-2025.
The outcome in Terrebonne, more than the others, carried the weight of historical precedent and the potential to rewrite the political landscape. The hours following the polls closing were filled with anticipation as the nation awaited the final results.
