The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) will undergo its first formal review on July 1, marking a significant milestone for Canada's agri-food sector. While this may seem like a bureaucratic step, its implications for investment, food prices, and trade flows will shape the industry for years to come.
As Canada navigates this critical juncture, it is essential to project clarity, consistency, and economic pragmatism. However, the federal government is sending mixed messages, undermining confidence in the country's trade policy. Recently, a video portrayed Canada's reliance on the United States as a strategic weakness, while Prime Minister Mark Carney proclaimed that Canada could help "Make America Great Again."
Trade policy is not about branding; it is about confidence. Businesses investing billions in food processing plants, logistics networks, and manufacturing facilities need to know where Canada stands. Policy cannot shift depending on the audience. The prime minister's claim that Canada is creating jobs at twice the rate of the United States is misleading, as the data shows a net loss of roughly 25,000 jobs in Canada over the past year, while the United States has added nearly 900,000 jobs.
The government's optimism about export diversification also deserves scrutiny. While exports to countries outside the United States have increased, much of this growth has been driven by higher shipments of gold and other commodities. Excluding precious metals, export performance is considerably weaker. The gains have largely come from established exporters selling more abroad rather than new Canadian firms successfully entering foreign markets.
For agri-food, diversification has made even less progress, with roughly 70 to 72% of Canada's agri-food exports still going to the United States. This dependence is not a policy failure, but an economic reality. Geography, integrated supply chains, shared food safety standards, and decades of commercial relationships all contribute to this reality.
The recent tensions surrounding the opening and operation of the Gordie Howe International Bridge illustrate the importance of maintaining a positive tone in Canada's relationship with Washington. The United States' reported demand for a share of toll revenues is difficult to justify, and public disagreements can sometimes be unavoidable. However, it is essential to defend Canada's interests firmly and confidently, accompanied by consistency, accuracy, and strategic discipline.
Canada has every right to defend its interests, but it must recognize that successful trade negotiations are built through credibility, relationships, and continuous engagement. The upcoming CUSMA review is an opportunity for Canada to demonstrate its commitment to these principles and to the success of North America's integrated food system. As the agreement enters its first formal review, Canada needs fewer slogans and more strategy to ensure the continued prosperity of its exporters, farmers, and consumers.
