The fertilizer shortage caused by the Persian Gulf war is expected to start affecting crops by 2027, with significant implications for global food security, according to a recent report.
In their Agricultural Outlook for 2026 to 2035, the OECD and FAO warn that increased energy prices and reduced fertilizer availability could lead to a deterioration of food security in low-income countries, with a 25% probability that global farm incomes could fall by 2035 due to frequent crises and economic disruptions.
The report projects a 9% increase in the average gross agricultural income of farmers worldwide per capita by 2035, assuming productivity gains and stable agricultural prices. However, Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America are expected to see growth in agricultural and fisheries production, with a global expansion of 13% over the next ten years.
Global grain production may decline by 0.9% in 2027 if energy prices continue to surge, with low-income countries potentially experiencing a sharp 1.7% drop in production. The report highlights the importance of multilateral cooperation and rules-based international agricultural trade in ensuring resilient global food security and stable farm incomes.
The OECD Secretary-General calls for better support to farmers worldwide in the face of adverse weather events and sustained investment in farm productivity and open global markets.
The FAO Director-General emphasizes the need for diversification of trade corridors, regional reserves of critical agricultural inputs, resilient infrastructure, and a diversified energy mix across agrifood systems to reduce dependence on oil.
Both organizations stress the importance of preparing for future shocks and building resilience in the agrifood sector to ensure food security and sustainable agricultural development.
The OECD and FAO urge policymakers to prioritize investments in agricultural productivity, infrastructure, and trade to support the resilience of farmers and ensure a stable food system.
