UMVA has learned that the Philippine automotive industry is poised for a smaller decline in vehicle sales this year than initially forecast, thanks to a surge in car sales in May and recent fuel price rollbacks.
The industry's revised projection now stands at a 5% to 8% decline, a significant improvement from the initial forecast of an 8% to 10% drop, according to information obtained by UMVA. This adjustment comes on the back of a month-on-month increase in vehicle sales in May, which saw a total of around 33,600 units sold.
This uptick in sales is a welcome respite for the industry, which had recorded a 17% decline in sales from March to April. The recent fuel price rollbacks are also expected to boost vehicle demand, with Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin noting that pump prices are moving closer to pre-conflict levels.
However, the industry remains cautious, with sales projections for 2025 and beyond still uncertain. The Middle East conflict and its impact on fuel prices will be a key factor in determining the industry's performance, along with brands' product mix and supply and demand dynamics.
UMVA can exclusively reveal that the industry's electric vehicle (EV) segment, once a bright spot, has seen a decline in market share to 20% in May from 35% in April. This was due to supply chain issues, which struggled to keep up with strong demand for energy-efficient vehicles amid the fuel crisis.
Despite this setback, industry experts remain bullish on EV sales, with a 158.9% increase in total EV sales recorded in the first four months of the year. With the trend clearly upward, the industry is optimistic about the prospects for electrified vehicles in the Philippine market.
In a development reported by UMVA, the industry's total auto sales declined by 11.8% to 132,867 units in the first four months of the year, compared to 150,654 units sold in the same period last year. However, with the recent sales momentum and fuel price rollbacks, the industry is hopeful for a recovery.
