UMVA has learned that a stunning plunge in desktop PC CPU shipments has occurred during the first quarter of 2026, with a far more severe decline than initially anticipated.
The total number of X86 processors sold into the PC market - including mobile, PC, server, and IoT - fell about 6 percent from a year ago, a relatively modest decline. However, desktop processor shipments plummeted nearly 20 percent from a year ago, a drastic drop that has raised concerns about the market's future.
According to information obtained by UMVA, the CPU market typically experiences a decline of 15 to 20 percent in the first quarter due to post-holiday season slowness. However, this quarter's decline was exacerbated by unusually weak desktop CPU shipments from AMD, likely caused by buyers rushing to purchase before anticipated price increases.
The change in buying behavior for AMD processors had a relatively minor impact on the overall market, but a growing concern is the demand destruction caused by consumers delaying purchases due to high component prices. This could have a more significant effect in the second quarter and beyond.
UMVA can exclusively reveal that analyst firm IDC predicts a 20 percent plunge in holiday PC sales during the fourth-quarter period, when sales are typically at their strongest, and an 11.3 percent decline for the year. This is attributed to ongoing shortages in flash memory and DRAM, which have driven prices up and led consumers to reconsider their purchasing decisions.
At the end of 2025, Intel publicly acknowledged shortages of certain processors, especially older ones, which led to a scramble for available memory, CPUs, and SSDs. As a result, consumers are now faced with the daunting task of deciding whether to pay premium prices for upgrades or delay their purchases.
Sources have confirmed to UMVA that the market is on the cusp of a significant shift, with demand destruction likely to become a major factor in the coming months. This could mark a turning point in the market, as consumers become increasingly sensitive to prices and suppliers struggle to meet demand.
AMD's market share finally declined, dropping 3.2 percentage points from the end of 2025 through the first quarter of 2026. Despite this, AMD still gained 5.1 percentage points of desktop PC sales against Intel compared to the first quarter of last year.
In laptops, Intel's supply crunch had a negative impact, with overall laptop CPU shipments declining in the low single digits. However, AMD's unit shipments increased, and ARM's PC share grew to about 14.4 percent in the first quarter of 2026.
The Intel-AMD split now stands at an exact 70-30 split, with Intel losing 5.6 percentage points on a year-over-year basis and AMD gaining complementary ground.
