The upcoming Iowa Senate contest is shaping up to be one of the closest in the country, with Democrat Josh Turek holding a narrow 4-point edge over Republican Ashley Hinson, according to a recent statewide survey. The poll found Turek with 50% support compared to Hinson's 46%.
The survey also revealed that Turek has a significant advantage among voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote, leading by 15 points. This enthusiasm gap is largely due to the higher level of motivation among Democrats, with 67% of them reporting they are extremely motivated to vote, compared to 53% of Republicans.
Turek's lead is also driven by his strong performance among key demographics, including women with a college degree, independents, urban voters, and voters under 30. In contrast, Hinson's support comes from White evangelical Christians, men over 45, veterans, and men without a college degree.
The survey found that Turek's backing is strongest among voters who prioritize issues such as inflation, healthcare, and political divisions. In contrast, Hinson has a significant advantage on the issue of immigration, with 88% of voters supporting her on this issue.
The survey also highlighted the challenges facing Hinson, including her ties to former President Donald Trump. While 50% of voters expressed concern that she is too close to Trump, 48% said they were not concerned. In contrast, 37% of voters were concerned that Turek's positions on the issues are too liberal, while 59% said they were not concerned.
The poll also found that Iowa voters are increasingly concerned about the state of the economy, with 42% saying they are falling behind financially, compared to 11% who say they are getting ahead. This concern is driving voters to prioritize issues such as inflation, which 39% of voters say is the most important issue in their Senate vote.
The survey found that Turek has the edge on voters who say their most important issues are inflation, healthcare, and political divisions. In contrast, Hinson has a significant advantage on the issue of immigration.
In the governor's race, Democratic nominee Rob Sand is leading Republican challenger Zach Lahn by 9 points, according to the survey. Sand benefits from some crossover support, as 11% of Hinson supporters favor him for governor compared to 7% of Turek supporters backing Lahn.
The survey found that Sand enjoys a positive personal rating, with 54% of voters viewing him favorably and 33% unfavorably. In contrast, Lahn's ratings are negative, with 38% viewing him favorably and 41% unfavorably.
