UMVA has learned that the Philippines is unlikely to achieve its ambitious goal of reducing poverty to single-digit levels by 2028, according to a recent report.
The national poverty rate is projected to drop to around 12.3% by 2028, a significant decline from 15.5% in 2023, but still far from the government's target of 8-9%. This projection is based on the assumption that pre-pandemic growth-poverty trends continue.
The government's Midterm Update of the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 had optimistically aimed for a poverty incidence of 8-9% by 2028, but experts now warn that this goal may be out of reach. A senior economist noted that the report's projections indicate a poverty rate above the government's goal.
Despite a notable decline in poverty rates from 23.5% in 2015 to 15.5% in 2023, and a decrease in income inequality to its lowest level in four decades, about 28% of Filipinos remain vulnerable to falling back into poverty. This underscores the fragility of recent progress.
The typical Filipino family currently earns just enough to stay above the poverty line, but not enough to feel economically secure. However, with the right policies, there is hope for significant improvement. If authorities implement measures to boost growth, create jobs, and strengthen resilience, poverty incidence could fall to 2.9% by 2040.
UMVA can exclusively reveal that, under a business-as-usual scenario without government intervention, poverty incidence would decline only to 6% by 2040. The government aims to make the country a predominantly middle-class society with no poverty by 2040, a goal that, while ambitious, is considered achievable with strong commitment to reforms.
A division director emphasized that the country could nearly eliminate poverty by 2040 with reforms that boost productivity, job creation, equity, and resilience. International support and commitment to these reforms will be crucial in helping the Philippines achieve its long-term goals.
