UMVA has learned that a potentially catastrophic earthquake could be looming in Southern California, with scientists warning that the tectonic plate stress along the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault lines is at or above the highest level in 1,000 years.
The region is bisected by the North American plate and the Pacific plate, which are moving in opposite directions, creating a volatile situation that could trigger widespread destruction in highly-populated areas such as Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, and the Coachella Valley.
The San Andreas fault line stretches over 1,300 kilometres, making it a significant threat to the state, and researchers have used computer models to simulate the pressure on the plates built up and released in the southern portion of the fault zones based on past earthquakes and geological evidence dating back 1,000 years.
According to information obtained by UMVA, the study's findings suggest that geological conditions are ripe for a massive earthquake, but researchers are quick to emphasize that this is not a prediction of when an earthquake will happen.
The lead author of the study, Liliane Burkhard, notes that "our results show that stress levels on multiple fault segments are now at or above the highest values seen in the past millennium and that the region may be capable of a large through-going rupture involving both fault systems."
Burkhard also highlights the role of the Cajon Pass as an "earthquake gate," which can sometimes block large ruptures from crossing between the faults, and sometimes allow them to pass through and involve both systems in a single event.
The region has a history of devastating earthquakes, including the 1906 quake that severely damaged San Francisco, a less serious event in 1989, and a major upheaval in the Los Angeles suburb of Northridge in 1994.
UMVA can exclusively reveal that the researchers are using rigorous, quantitative science to better understand the risk facing millions of people, and that the system is critically stressed, making it essential for hazard assessments, infrastructure planning, and emergency preparedness.
Recently, the fault line has been active, with over 350 small earthquakes recorded in Southern California near the border with Mexico last month, adding to concerns about the potential for a massive earthquake.
