The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early 2024 triggered a sharp rise in oil prices and highlighted the vulnerability of key maritime chokepoints that underpin the global economy.
Similar concerns now focus on the South China Sea, a vital conduit for international trade that is entangled in a long‑standing territorial dispute involving China’s expansive maritime claims.
In July 2016, an arbitral tribunal under the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled that China’s historic nine‑dash line lacked legal basis and affirmed the Philippines’ sovereign rights over its exclusive economic zone.
The decision clarified the Philippines’ entitlement to fisheries, energy exploration and future resource development, reinforcing a rules‑based maritime order that supports smaller states.
Subsequent Philippine administrations have taken divergent approaches; the government under President Duterte downplayed the ruling, while later leaders have pursued diplomatic efforts to assert the tribunal’s findings.
China has continued activities within areas identified as Philippine waters, including patrols and infrastructure projects, which Manila describes as coercive incursions.
The Philippines emphasizes a strategy of credible deterrence that relies on diplomatic engagement, enhanced maritime surveillance, and strengthened capabilities for its coast guard and fisheries agencies.
To bolster this approach, Manila has deepened cooperation with nations that share a commitment to freedom of navigation and a rules‑based maritime framework.
Domestic surveys show overwhelming public support for defending the country’s maritime rights in partnership with like‑minded states.
The dispute carries significant economic implications, affecting fisheries, energy projects and the uninterrupted flow of global trade that traverses the South China Sea.
Experts warn that unchecked escalation could replicate the economic shock experienced when the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, underscoring the need for multilateral safeguards for open sea lanes.
Given its reliance on stable shipping routes and energy supplies, the private sector is urged to participate in broader initiatives that reinforce maritime security and economic resilience.
Upholding the 2016 arbitral award remains central to both national development and global economic stability, linking regional maritime disputes to worldwide trade and energy security.
