As 2025 drew to a close, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. faced a critical juncture. More than halfway through his term, the ambitious goals he’d set – particularly for the Philippine economy – hung in the balance. With just 30 months remaining, the pressure to deliver tangible results was immense.
A team of young, insightful economists from the University of Asia and the Pacific was assembled to conduct a rigorous assessment. Their mission: to compare the performance of the Marcos Jr. administration against those of his predecessors, Presidents Benigno Aquino III and Rodrigo Duterte. This wasn’t simply a review of numbers; it was a search for patterns, for the keys to unlocking sustained economic progress.
The initial economic indicators offered a mixed picture. 2022 saw a robust 7.6% GDP growth, largely fueled by a post-pandemic recovery. However, the momentum faltered. 2023 registered 5.5% growth, falling short of the targeted 6.5-8%. While still competitive within the Indo-Pacific region, it wasn’t enough to dramatically reduce the nation’s 16% poverty rate.
The slowdown continued. 2024 brought a 5.6% increase, and 2025 witnessed a concerning dip to 4.4% – the slowest growth in fifteen years, excluding the pandemic’s disruption. This deceleration wasn’t merely a statistical anomaly; it signaled a deeper challenge to the administration’s economic vision.
A stark contrast emerged when comparing these figures to the Duterte administration, which averaged 6.4% annual growth before the pandemic. While Duterte’s term also experienced a pandemic-induced contraction, it rebounded strongly. The Marcos Jr. administration, despite a promising start, hadn’t yet matched that level of sustained performance.
The focus shifted to identifying Key Result Areas (KRAs) crucial for accelerating growth and tackling poverty. Four pillars were identified: food security, foreign direct investments (FDIs), infrastructure development, and good governance. These weren’t abstract concepts; they were the essential building blocks for a more prosperous Philippines.
For decades, the agricultural sector had languished, averaging a meager 0-1% annual growth. Simultaneously, the Philippines struggled to attract significant FDIs, lagging behind neighbors like Vietnam, which consistently drew in $15-20 billion annually – nearly double the Philippines’ intake.
Infrastructure spending, once a bright spot reaching 5-6% of GDP during Duterte’s later years, plummeted to below 3% in 2025. A major corruption scandal involving flood control projects, implicating the Department of Public Works and Highways, legislators, and private contractors, proved devastating.
President Marcos Jr. himself recognized the paramount importance of food security, initially serving as Secretary of Agriculture. His subsequent appointment of Francis Tiu Laurel, a seasoned expert in aquaculture, signaled a renewed commitment to revitalizing the sector. A 3% or greater annual growth in agriculture was deemed essential for achieving the ambitious 8% GDP growth target.
Reaching that 8% threshold also demanded a substantial influx of FDIs – approximately $15-20 billion annually – to supplement the nation’s limited savings. This would elevate the investment-to-GDP ratio, bringing it closer to the 30% average seen in thriving East Asian economies.
But economic growth alone wasn’t enough. A fundamental improvement in good governance was critical. The billions lost to corruption – exemplified by the 2025 scandal – needed to be redirected towards vital investments in infrastructure, support for small farmers, and improvements in education and public health.
These weren’t merely economic targets; they were pathways to a more equitable and prosperous future for the Filipino people. The next phase of the assessment would delve deeper into each of these KRAs, seeking to understand the challenges and opportunities that lay ahead.
