UMVA has learned that Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson of Iowa has secured her party's Senate nomination in the high-stakes race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst.
Hinson, a charismatic former TV news anchor and three-term representative of Iowa's 2nd Congressional District, emerged victorious in the GOP Senate primary by defeating former state senator and U.S. Senate candidate Jim Carlin. This win sets the stage for a fiercely contested general election.
The Republican-controlled seat in Iowa is a top target for Democrats, and this race is one of about a dozen crucial showdowns in the midterm elections that will determine whether Republicans maintain their slim 53–47 majority in the Senate. The outcome will have far-reaching implications for the balance of power in Washington.
Hinson's campaign received a significant boost from high-profile endorsements, including President Donald Trump, Senate Majority Leader Sen. John Thune, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Ernst, the incumbent senator, also threw her support behind Hinson, who in 2020 flipped a Democratic-held seat in Iowa.
As a rising star in the Republican Party, Hinson is seen as a strong contender in a state that has shifted to the right in recent election cycles. Iowa was once a top battleground state, but it has become increasingly Republican-leaning, with Trump carrying the state by significant margins in 2016, 2020, and 2024.
Despite Republican dominance in Iowa, Democrats are energized heading into the midterms, driven by concerns over inflation, sky-high gas prices, and an unpopular war. Iowa Democrats, in particular, are buoyed by recent special election victories, having flipped two GOP-held state Senate seats.
Hinson will face off against the winner of a contentious Democratic Senate primary between state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian, and state Sen. Zach Wahls. The primary has drawn significant attention, with Wahls backed by liberal champion Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Turek supported by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
As Hinson aims to succeed Ernst, she will need to navigate a challenging political landscape. Ernst, a retired Army Reserve and Iowa National Guard officer, has been a prominent figure in Iowa politics since her election in 2014. Her "make 'em squeal" ads garnered national attention during her initial Senate campaign.
