The Pierre Poilievre Conservatives are gaining ground on the Mark Carney Liberals, suggesting a shift in Canada's ballot environment. New numbers released by Liaison Strategies show the gap between the two parties narrowing, with the Tories gaining a couple of percentage points to snag 34% of the decided vote compared to 42% for the Liberals, if a federal election were held today.
The numbers suggest the beginning of a tightening in the race, with the Tories now at their best result since May 18. However, the Liberals remain above 40% among decided and leaning voters. The federal NDP continue to lag far behind at just 13%, with the Bloc Québécois garnering 6% of the vote.
Prime Minister Mark Carney's approval rating has stabilized at 58%, up by one percentage point, with his disapproval rating holding at 36%. This puts him at a net positive of 22 points, according to Liaison Strategies.
However, the Conservative leader's favourability rating has fallen 2% to 37%, with their disapproval rating increasing three percentage points to 50%. The numbers suggest that the Conservative vote improved even as their leader's personal numbers worsened, indicating that the gain may be more about the ballot environment than a personal breakthrough for the leader.
The numbers were obtained by conducting a randomized sample of 1,526 Canadians between June 14 and June 27, with a margin of error of ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
