The hope of finalizing a crucial code of conduct for the South China Sea this year is fading, overshadowed by escalating global crises. Analysts suggest the focus has dramatically shifted, particularly for the Philippines as it prepares to host a streamlined ASEAN summit.
Manila has openly acknowledged its vulnerability regarding energy security in light of the intensifying conflict in Iran. This, coupled with a planned recalibration of relations with China, suggests the long-elusive code of conduct will likely be sidelined for now.
The upcoming ASEAN summits must urgently address the unfolding energy crisis in the Middle East, alongside growing concerns about cybersecurity and the lingering tensions in the Cambodia-Thailand border dispute. A unified regional stance is needed to curb destabilizing activities in the contested South China Sea.
Efforts to establish a binding code of conduct between ASEAN and China began over two decades ago, in 2002. However, progress has been repeatedly stalled by complex legal, political, and strategic disagreements, despite previous commitments to finalize the agreement.
President Marcos Jr. recently affirmed that ASEAN leaders agreed to proceed with scheduled meetings, prioritizing immediate regional concerns. The summit’s agenda will now heavily emphasize coordination on critical issues like energy supplies, food security, and the protection of overseas workers impacted by the Middle East conflict.
Political science experts believe the Philippines, as this year’s ASEAN chair, has a unique opportunity to assert regional independence regarding the Middle East situation. This could foster greater interdependence within ASEAN and demonstrate the strength of middle power diplomacy.
The recent coordinated strike by the US and Israel against Iran has dramatically heightened tensions and disrupted global oil markets. The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a vital artery for approximately 20 million barrels of oil daily – adds another layer of urgency to the situation.
Despite the downsized summit, some analysts suggest the situation could actually benefit negotiations surrounding the code of conduct. The need for collaboration with key partners like China, through platforms like ASEAN+3, might create a more conducive environment for progress.
Energy security and the welfare of migrant workers remain central to the Philippines’ priorities as chair. These concerns are intrinsically linked to broader regional security considerations, particularly in ensuring the safety of citizens abroad.
The South China Sea continues to be a major point of contention. China’s expanding presence in the region directly challenges the 2016 ruling by an international tribunal that invalidated its expansive claims, creating friction with neighboring countries including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and Taiwan.
