Less than 10 days till President Donald Trump’s higher “reciprocal” tariffs kick back in for most of the world, the U.S. looks like it may emerge with just a handful of trade deals.
The Presidentshocked the worldandroiled marketson April 2, which he dubbed “Liberation Day,” when he imposed tariffs of as high as 50% on nearly every country, before announcing a 90-day reduction in astunning reversaljust a week later. That pause, however, is ending July 9, and Trumpsaidin a Sunday interview on Fox News, taped Friday, that he doesn’t intend to extend the deadline—although, he added, “I could, no big deal.”
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]On Friday, Trump said he could do “whatever we want” with the deadline. “I’d like to make it shorter. I’d like to just send letters out to everybody, ‘Congratulations, you’re paying 25%,’” hetoldreporters.
Trump’s unpredictable style has earned him the descriptor “TACO” for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” while businesses, economists, and investors have criticized him for creating avolatile business environment. The President and his officials havecounteredthat the uncertainty is all part of a master strategy to achievebetter deals.
But the level of trade success Trump will have achieved by next week looks to fall short of his goals. Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarrotouted“90 deals in 90 days” in April. As the deadline approaches though, others in the Administration arelowering expectations.
“We’re going to do top 10 deals, put them in the right category, and then these other countries will fit behind,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnicksaidon Bloomberg Television last week.
Treasury Secretary Scott BessentechoedLutnick on Fox Business on Friday: “If we can ink 10 or 12 of the important 18—there are another important 20 relationships—then I think we could have trade wrapped up by Labor Day [Sept. 1].” For other “smaller trading partners, we will just send them letters,” Bessentsaidon CNBC.
Trade talks run into issues
Japan was one of the first countries to begin trade negotiations with the U.S. after the pause was announced, but talks have been troubled bydisagreements over Japan’s policies protecting domestic rice.
“To show people how spoiled Countries have become with respect to the United States of America, and I have great respect for Japan, they won’t take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage,” Trumppostedon Truth Social on Monday. (Japan imports 770,000 metric tons of rice every year without any tariffs, around half of which comes from the U.S.) “In other words, we’ll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come.”
The “letters” that Trump likes to reference will notify countries of what rate their goods will be tariffed at, which Trump said on Fox News would mark “the end of the trade deal.”
With some trading partners, Trump’s strong-arm style has won him immediate concessions. Trump railed against Canada on Friday,announcingthat he was ending trade talks over its proposed digital services tax, which hecalled“a direct and blatant attack on our Country.” On Sunday, Ottawa said it wasabandoningthe tax policy to resume negotiations with Washington in the hopes that it can reach a deal with the U.S. by July 21. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Canada “caved.”
Similarly, the European Union on Mondayreportedly yieldedto a 10% levy on many of its exports, as it pushes for lower rates on specific key sectors and exemptions to higher tariffs on automobiles as well as steel and aluminum.
But Trump’s hardball tactics could also sour important U.S. trade relationships, and in the long term push countries to seek alternative trading partners. The E.U., alongside its negotiations with the U.S., is preparing countermeasures to tariff U.S. goods and hasstepped updiscussions with China aroundtheir trade relationshipin recent months.
Jayant Menon, a research fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, previously told TIME that countries will look to diversify their trade and engage with “more reliable” trading partners. And many have already begun, said Kristina Fong, an economic affairs researcher at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, especially in terms of increasing trade with China. “It’s a very slow burn kind of momentum, but that’s always been, I think, the underlying case,” Fong told TIME.
Moreover, “smaller trading partners” that haven’t even gotten a seat at the negotiating table are likely to be hit hardest. Trump’s apparent dismissal of these countries, similar to his decision toshutter USAID, suggests that he doesn’t see the benefits of having positive relations with them.
Many of them were already hit with some of thehighest “reciprocal” tariffswhen they were initially announced, and many aren’t in a position to simply purchase more American goods. Lesotho, which was hit with the highest 50% rate, was pessimistic at the outset of the pause, with the country’s trade and industry ministersaying, “I don’t have a good experience with trying to get meetings with [the Trump Administration].”
“We’ll look at how a country treats us—are they good, are they not so good? Some countries we don’t care, we’ll just send a high number out,” Trump said on Fox News. “Congratulations, we’re allowing you to shop in the United States of America. You’re going to pay a 25% tariff or 35% or 50% or 10%.”
“What does this do long term to trust and confidence [in the U.S.]?” says Mark Cogan, associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Japan’s Kansai Gaidai University, tells TIME. “You’re bullying your way to get what you want, and that reduces trust. To a certain extent, parties will assume eventually that they cannot negotiate with the United States because perhaps the United States is not negotiating in good faith.”
China says its interests must be safeguarded
Countries seeking quick and favorable deals with the U.S. also face a balancing act with China.
China has attempted toposition itselfas a reliable and stable partner, incontrastwith Trump’s erratic style, and to strengthen its relations with other countries. Trump’s tariffs “were accelerating a trend of Chinese businesses looking more and more overseas,” William Figueroa, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Groningen, previously told TIME.
China, which signed an agreement with the U.S. in May that temporarily lowered both nations’ levies on each other after anescalating tariff war, haswarnedthat countries should not reach deals with the U.S. at the expense of China’s interests.
China is on a separate timeline for negotiating with the U.S., with its 90-day pause beginning May 14, though the two countries have already reached a limited deal.
“China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal for so-called tariff reductions at the expense of China’s interests. If that happens, China would never accept it and would take resolute countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,” China’s Ministry of Commercesaidin a statement on Saturday.
“China is happy to see all parties resolve trade disputes with the US through equal consultations,” the statement added. “At the same time, we call on them to stand on the side of fairness and justice and firmly defend international and multilateral trade rules.”
Xu Weijun, a researcher with the Institute of Public Policy at the South China University of Technology in Guangzhou,toldSCMP that Beijing, which has repeatedly called Trump’s tariffs “unilateral bullying,” is watching Trump’s trade talks with caution.
“Trump is an emotionally driven leader with a history of flip-flopping. Beijing knows too well it must prepare for him reneging on commitments or using deals with other countries to extract concessions [from China],” Xu told SCMP.
But, Xu cautioned: “If Trump believes the U.S. is losing in a deal or thinks attacking China and stoking nationalist sentiment serves his domestic political agenda, he could easily overturn existing consensus and even scrap signed agreements.”
Deals may still fall short of expectations
Trump has boasted about his dealswith the U.K.and China, but critics say these agreements are not substantive or fail to address some of Trump’s key concerns.
Trade experts suggest that other deals may end up similarly appearing more like broad frameworks with many details left to be worked out later.
Tim Meyer, a professor at Duke University law school who specializes in international trade,toldBloomberg: “I would expect the White House will announce some number of frameworks that it’s going to call trade deals, but do not meet anyone’s ordinary understanding of that term.”
