A chilling assessment has taken hold within U.S. foreign policy circles: Lebanon is teetering on the brink of collapse, labeled a “failed state” by a senior American official. The core of the problem isn’t economic hardship alone, but the unchecked power of Hezbollah, a heavily armed militia loyal to Iran, effectively operating as a state within a state.
Hezbollah’s strength is stark. While Lebanese soldiers struggle with meager pay – a mere $275 a month and outdated equipment – the militia boasts 40,000 fighters, funded with a lavish $2,200 monthly stipend per member. They possess a formidable arsenal, estimated at 15,000 to 20,000 rockets and missiles, casting a long shadow of threat over the region.
A fragile ceasefire, brokered by the U.S. in late 2024, offered a glimmer of hope. Lebanon’s government tentatively agreed to a plan to disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025. But the reality on the ground paints a grim picture of inaction and stalled progress.
Israeli security experts are blunt: the Lebanese army is simply unable, or unwilling, to confront Hezbollah. “Israel is the only one disarming Hezbollah with its airstrikes,” explains Sarit Zehavi, a leading analyst. She points to a critical failure – the absence of systematic searches for weapons caches, the lack of public disclosure of seized arms, and a general reluctance to enter Hezbollah strongholds.
The U.S. insists that disarming Hezbollah is paramount to regional stability. A State Department official emphasized the need to dismantle non-state actors and curb Iran’s influence, warning that an armed Hezbollah poses an existential threat to Lebanon and its neighbors. The world, they say, is watching closely.
Pressure is mounting on the Lebanese military to implement the disarmament plan. U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus delivered a direct message: the time for action is now. Yet, the Lebanese Armed Forces have historically avoided direct confrontation with Hezbollah, a pattern that continues to fuel frustration among international observers.
Recent events underscore the escalating tensions. An Israeli strike that killed a municipal worker in Lebanon sparked condemnation from the Lebanese army, who labeled it a “criminal act.” Israel maintains it was responding to an immediate threat during an operation targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, and insists it takes extraordinary measures to avoid civilian casualties.
The situation reached a boiling point when Lebanese President Joseph Aoun ordered the army to retaliate against any Israeli incursion, following an overnight border crossing. This order, coupled with Israeli warplanes flying over the presidential palace, signaled a dangerous escalation in the conflict.
The United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL) condemned the Israeli attack as a violation of international resolutions, but Israeli officials express deep skepticism about UNIFIL’s effectiveness. They argue the force has consistently failed to prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament and border entrenchment.
Despite UNIFIL’s claims of discovering hundreds of weapons caches, experts believe the militia is actively rebuilding its capabilities, even operating in the Beqaa Valley. Reports surfaced of a French unit of UNIFIL even downing an Israeli drone, a detail the UNIFIL spokesperson declined to confirm.
A subtle shift is occurring within Lebanon itself. Some Lebanese citizens are beginning to explore the possibility of diplomatic relations with Israel, disillusioned by Hezbollah’s failures and recognizing a potential path towards stability. This nascent movement, however, faces fierce opposition from the deeply entrenched militia.
Hezbollah, despite battlefield setbacks, remains resolute in its determination to maintain control over Lebanon and suppress dissenting voices. It continues to receive unwavering support from Iran, preparing for future conflict and resisting any attempts to disarm. The U.S. reaffirms its commitment to a free, prosperous, and safe Lebanon, but the path forward remains fraught with peril.
The Lebanese government’s silence on these critical issues is deafening. Repeated requests for comment from the Lebanese embassy in Washington D.C. and Beirut have gone unanswered, leaving the future of the nation hanging precariously in the balance.
