A quiet tremor ran through the halls of power last week. For the first time in a decade, Ontario’s liquor stores won’t deliver $2 billion to the provincial treasury in 2025. The initial narrative points to expanded alcohol sales in grocery and convenience stores, but the truth is a far more unsettling story of systemic issues and leadership failures.
The LCBO maintains a firm grip on liquor retail in Ontario, a near-monopoly on wine until recently. Yet, despite this dominance, the annual financial contribution to the province has been steadily eroding for years. This isn’t simply about competition; it’s a symptom of deeper problems within the organization itself.
The blame doesn’t lie with privatization, but with those at the helm. CEO George Soleas and board chair Carmine Nigro should be demanding improvement, not passively overseeing a decline. While supporters will attribute the drop – from $2.46 billion in 2022-23 to a projected $1.85 billion – to government policy changes like wholesale discounts, the numbers don’t fully align.
A 25% dividend decrease far outweighs the 10-15% impact of the wholesale pricing adjustments. Even acknowledging a shift in consumer habits – a move towards healthier lifestyles or cannabis – the LCBO’s performance still lags significantly behind its counterparts in other provinces.
Long before the recent policy shifts, the LCBO consistently delivered a lower return per capita compared to Quebec, Alberta, and British Columbia. This is particularly damning considering Quebec and British Columbia operate with hybrid public/private models, and Alberta fully privatized decades ago. The LCBO should be leading, not trailing.
The disparity is stark. In 2024, Ontario’s LCBO returned $159 per capita to the province, while Quebec delivered $161, Alberta $164, and British Columbia a substantial $202. Even the price of an Ontario-made product, like Wisers Deluxe Canadian whiskey, reveals a troubling pattern.
That same bottle costs $32.95 at the LCBO, but a mere $31.25 in Quebec, $28.99 in Alberta, and an astonishing $27.99 in British Columbia. Lower prices for consumers in other provinces, coupled with a greater return to their governments, expose a fundamental flaw in the LCBO’s operation.
How can a near-monopoly, charging higher prices, deliver a smaller dividend? The answer is undeniably poor management. In the private sector, such performance would have resulted in swift action, yet Soleas has remained in his position for nearly a decade. Rumors of his impending departure have circulated for months, but remain unconfirmed.
Instead of addressing the core issues, the LCBO appears poised to implement a system that will *raise* prices for consumers, attempting to artificially inflate the dividend. Despite repeated attempts for clarification, officials remain silent, fueling concerns that the organization is prioritizing short-term gains over long-term sustainability and consumer value.
A comprehensive overhaul is urgently needed, extending far beyond the CEO’s office and throughout the entire executive structure. The LCBO’s current trajectory is unsustainable, and a fundamental shift in leadership and strategy is essential to restore its financial health and public trust.
