Every seasoned commander understands a fundamental truth: hope is a dangerous substitute for a solid plan. True success hinges on anticipating every possible threat and preparing for them *before* conflict erupts. The United States and its allies must now apply this same principle to the escalating challenge posed by Iran’s ruling clerical regime. To fail in this preparation would be a grave strategic error, a dereliction of duty with potentially catastrophic consequences.
Recently, Iran’s Foreign Minister issued a veiled warning, boasting of the regime’s growing “missile power.” This claim attempts to mask the significant damage inflicted during June’s twelve-day conflict with Israel, where a substantial portion of their missile arsenal and production facilities were reportedly destroyed. Tehran’s efforts to downplay these losses are a desperate attempt to maintain the illusion of regional dominance.
Despite the setbacks, Iranian officials now assert they’ve rebuilt and even expanded their capabilities, with some openly welcoming renewed conflict. This bravado is a facade, a desperate display masking a dangerous intent to continue projecting force throughout the region. It’s the posture of a regime cornered, yet unwilling to concede.
For policymakers, this demands unwavering clarity and resolute action. The time for relying solely on diplomacy with a regime fundamentally reliant on violence is over. Forty-six years of Iranian rule have been defined by two core tenets: aggressive expansionism abroad and brutal repression at home. And both are demonstrably weakening.
The regime’s outward projection of power is increasingly challenged by growing internal opposition. Since 2018, three nationwide uprisings have shaken the very foundations of their authority. The saber-rattling we hear isn’t strength; it’s the sound of a regime desperately clinging to power, acutely aware its grip is slipping.
The United States and its allies now face a critical choice. We can prepare for the next inevitable clash, or we can empower the Iranian people to prevent that conflict altogether – by supporting a change in leadership from within. This isn’t about intervention or war; it’s about aligning our policies with the reality on the ground.
The 2022 uprising, the largest since 1979, vividly demonstrated both the regime’s vulnerability and the unwavering determination of the Iranian population. Yet, Western capitals responded with disheartening passivity. Instead of bolstering the Iranian people, they inadvertently empowered the regime, which responded with mass executions, intensified repression, and the very belligerence that sparked the June conflict.
The repercussions of that inaction are still unfolding. Today, the regime has handed down death sentences to seventeen members of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, a leading force within the National Council of Resistance of Iran. This calculated campaign of terror aims to crush dissent domestically while simultaneously escalating threats abroad. The message is chillingly clear: Tehran fears its own people more than any external adversary.
On November 15th, Iranian-American communities will gather in Washington, D.C., for the Free Iran Convention. This pivotal event will unite over a thousand activists, scholars, and leaders to articulate a viable path toward a democratic transition. Central to this vision is Maryam Rajavi’s Ten-Point Plan, a blueprint for free elections, gender equality, religious freedom, peaceful international relations, and a non-nuclear Iran.
This framework offers something no military campaign can achieve: a lasting resolution to Tehran’s cycle of aggression. As a lifetime military professional, I understand the paramount importance of preparedness. We don’t plan for war because we desire it, but because peace *depends* on it. Today, the West must prepare – not for another endless conflict in the Middle East, but for the decisive political change that can prevent one.
The Iranian people have already demonstrated extraordinary courage and capability. What they need now is the unwavering assurance that the free world stands with them, not with their oppressors. The November 15th convention represents a unique opportunity to deliver that message, an event deserving the full attention of policymakers in Washington and across the West.
Tehran’s weakness is now undeniable. The crucial question is whether we possess the strategic foresight to act decisively before that weakness erupts into another devastating war.
