Metro Manila’s condominium market faces a challenging horizon, with a significant overhang of unsold units expected to take two to three years to fully absorb. The lingering impact of a previous influx of Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGOs) continues to weigh heavily on the market, particularly in prime central business districts.
As of late 2025, a staggering 80,300 condominium units remain available for sale across the metro area – a supply representing over three and a half years of current demand. The majority, 53,900 units, are still in the pre-selling phase, while 26,400 stand ready for immediate occupancy, awaiting buyers.
Quezon City currently holds the largest concentration of unsold properties, with nearly 19,300 units. The Ortigas area, along with Mandaluyong, Pasig, and San Juan, collectively account for another 14,200, and the Bay Area adds 13,000 to the total.
The slowdown isn’t limited to volume; demand has plummeted to a six-year low. Through the first eleven months of 2025, only 24,732 units were sold, a dramatic decrease from the 42,563 units sold during the same period in 2020. Even compared to the previous year, sales are down 3%.
Developers are responding to the cooling market by significantly scaling back new launches. Only 5,256 units were introduced in the first eleven months of 2025, a 60% drop from the 13,226 units launched a year prior – the lowest number since 2020. This cautious approach reflects a growing awareness of existing inventory and sluggish sales.
A key factor contributing to the slowdown is pricing. Aggressive price increases in recent years have priced many potential buyers out of the market, while former POGO-related sellers are now competing with reduced prices in the resale market, further hindering absorption rates.
Interestingly, this oversupply exists alongside a persistent housing backlog in the Philippines, highlighting a mismatch between the types of units being built and the actual needs of the population. The market is navigating a complex situation where demand isn’t keeping pace with available supply.
However, a bright spot exists in the commercial sector. Demand for office space is being fueled by the expansion of global capability centers (GCCs) – firms specializing in healthcare, finance, and other services. These companies are anticipated to drive significant leasing activity in 2026.
Office leasing demand has already shown positive momentum, increasing by 10% year-to-date to 1.22 million square meters. The information technology-business process management sector remains a major driver, but traditional firms and, increasingly, GCCs are contributing to the growth.
Vacated office space has also decreased substantially, falling 59% in the fourth quarter. This suggests a tightening market, particularly for larger spaces favored by GCCs, potentially leading to spillover demand into other districts as prime locations become fully occupied.
Currently, Metro Manila’s office vacancy rate stands at 18%, with Bonifacio Global City leading the way at a low 9% and Makati City at 15%. These areas remain the most desirable locations for businesses seeking premium office space.
