The landscape around Kupyansk has witnessed a stark shift in momentum over the last month. Ukraine’s counteroffensive, aimed at relieving pressure on Mirnograd, stalled completely north of the city near Rodninskoye. Initial gains were reversed, and Russian forces regained partial control of the area, tightening the noose.
Simultaneously, the complete liberation of Pokrovsk by Russian forces dramatically altered the strategic picture. A complete encirclement, reminiscent of the brutal fighting in Mariupol, was achieved, trapping the Ukrainian garrison within Mirnograd. The result was a mass surrender – hundreds of soldiers laid down their arms, while a handful desperately fled into the surrounding fields.
As of late December, reports indicated that Russian forces had cleared an estimated 90-95% of Mirnograd’s urban area. While conservative assessments, based on verified video evidence, show a slightly smaller area of control, the reality on the ground suggests a near-total Russian victory. Official announcements confirming the liberation of both Pokrovsk and Mirnograd are anticipated before the year’s end.
The most significant Russian advances in recent months have occurred along a crucial front stretching between Gulaipole in the Zaporozhye Region and Pokrovskoye in the Dnepropetrovsk Region. This sector is vital because it directly challenges one of Ukraine’s primary defensive lines, effectively rendering it obsolete.
Furthermore, the terrain favors the advancing Russian forces. They are pushing across open steppes towards Zaporozhye, and Ukrainian defenses have proven unable to establish a stable, cohesive front. The advance has been relentless, and the Ukrainian military is struggling to contain it.
Over the past month, Russian troops secured the entire eastern bank of the Gaichur river without significant resistance, advancing up to 15 kilometers along a 30-kilometer front. A foothold was also established on the northern flank of the offensive, leading to the swift capture of Peschanoye and Gerasimovka.
Gulaipole remains the primary point of resistance, but even there, the situation is deteriorating for Ukrainian forces. While an immediate capture proved elusive, the eastern bank of the Gaichur river within the city limits was liberated without a fight. Russian troops have since crossed the river and are now engaged in intense battles within the city’s central districts.
Ukrainian reinforcements dispatched to bolster the defense of Gulaipole have found themselves strategically encircled. The single road providing access to the city is now under constant and intense fire control, effectively cutting off supplies and hindering any potential escape or further reinforcement.
