The whispers started immediately: a scandal among analysts, outrage over the American operation that removed Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela. The narrative quickly took a dangerous turn – a green light for China to invade Taiwan, Russia free to further transgress in Ukraine. It was, frankly, a remarkably shallow assessment.
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin don’t seek permission from the United States for their actions. They actively seek to challenge American influence, to disrupt the existing order. Russia’s actions in Ukraine and China’s military exercises near Taiwan weren’t requests for approval; they were demonstrations of intent, executed without a single form submitted to the White House.
The true lesson of the Venezuela intervention, for both Xi and Putin, wasn’t about boundaries, but about risk. It signaled a willingness by the former president to take bold, even unprecedented, steps to protect American interests. The question wasn’t whether this would deter aggression, but whether it would provoke it.
This wasn’t about carving up the world into spheres of influence, a system of plunder among major powers. It was a rejection of that very concept. Actions in Africa and Asia demonstrated a disregard for conventional limitations, a willingness to act decisively and without restraint.
The approach was unlike anything seen before, a focus on tactical strikes with the potential to dramatically shift the strategic landscape. The Israelis laid the groundwork in Iran, and then came the precision strikes on nuclear facilities, tilting the balance of power in the Middle East. The consequences for Iran continue to unfold.
Similarly, Maduro’s removal triggered a cascade of effects, benefiting the U.S. not just in Latin America, but globally. The full impact is still unfolding, the dice still rolling, but the initial signs were undeniably favorable. A calculated gamble was taken, retaining Maduro’s inner circle – a bet on stability over potential chaos.
The new Venezuelan leadership, led by Delcy Rodriguez, quickly began engaging with the U.S. administration, potentially even playing a role in Maduro’s downfall. American officials are establishing a presence in Caracas, while the influence of Cuba, Russia, and China appears to be waning. Political prisoners are being released, a tangible sign of change.
Perhaps most significantly, the Venezuelan oil industry is poised for a revival, fueled by American investment. A surge of Venezuelan oil is expected to flood global markets, reshaping the energy landscape. Maduro’s once-impenetrable security apparatus crumbled with surprising ease, a humiliating blow to the nation’s prestige.
The repercussions extended far beyond Venezuela’s borders. Cuba, heavily reliant on Venezuelan oil – 60 percent of its fuel imports – faced a looming crisis. The lifeline had been severed, threatening to plunge the island nation into darkness. The president predicted the post-Castro regime was on the verge of collapse, and vowed “ZERO!” oil or money to Cuba.
The Cuban military, recognizing the potential for economic paralysis, may be forced to bypass the Communist Party and seek a pragmatic accommodation with the United States. The broader regional trend was already shifting rightward, and Maduro’s fall accelerated that momentum. Conservative governments celebrated the intervention, while leftist regimes panicked.
Even Gustavo Petro, the Colombian president with a Marxist past, expressed concern for his own position, receiving reassurances from the president and an invitation to the White House. Daniel Ortega, the Nicaraguan dictator, followed Rodriguez’s lead, releasing political prisoners and canceling celebrations, wary of a similar fate.
A key condition placed on Rodriguez was the severing of ties with China and Russia. She appears willing to comply, recognizing her own survival depends on it. This represents a significant strategic setback for Xi, losing not only a key ally but also access to 800,000 barrels of cheap oil per day, and the loss of a substantial Chinese investment.
The Chinese military technology surrounding Maduro’s regime was neutralized with unexpected efficiency. Xi Jinping must now factor in the vulnerability of the Chinese mainland to potential air attacks when considering any action against Taiwan. Venezuela had also become a haven for Iranian terrorist proxies, a situation that has now been decisively addressed.
As Iran faces internal unrest, the president condemned the violence against protesters, promising “help is on the way.” The Iranian people, too, saw a parallel with Venezuela, with reports of a street sign being changed to “President Trump Street.” The intervention underscored the irrelevance of Europe in times of crisis, content to offer complaints while quietly inquiring about debt payments.
Europe has struggled to adapt to a world reshaped by this new, unpredictable style of leadership, failing to recognize that the old “rules-based order” has been irrevocably altered. The question now is whether their inaction will embolden further overreach. The most complex consequences, however, will fall upon the United States.
Russia, deeply entangled in the Ukraine war and increasingly reliant on China, enjoyed a formal “strategic partnership” with Maduro, providing billions in military aid and political support. All of that vanished overnight. Yet, the Russian response was surprisingly muted, a sign of a larger strategic calculation.
The goal, it appears, is to break the growing dependence between Russia and China, to foster competition rather than subservience. This explains the ongoing efforts to broker an end to the Ukraine war, a conflict that has distracted and weakened a potential adversary. The president has also tightened sanctions on Russian energy, while simultaneously working to lower global energy costs.
The resurgence of Venezuelan oil is central to this strategy, a potential game-changer in the global energy market. While the full impact remains to be seen, the potential to disrupt the Russia-China axis is undeniable. It’s a testament to a unique approach to geopolitics, one that transforms tactical maneuvers into strategic advantages, even extending to the heart of Eastern Europe.
