A shadow of concern crossed the face of Economy Secretary Arsenio Balisacan. The numbers didn’t lie: the Philippine economy was faltering. Growth in 2025 had slumped to a mere 4.4%, a stark contrast to the previous year’s 5.7% and the weakest performance in five years – a chilling echo of the pandemic’s devastating 9.5% contraction in 2020.
Finance Secretary Frederick Go attempted to offer reassurance, pointing to a global average of 2.9% and an ASEAN average of 3.8%. “It’s not the end of the world,” he stated, framing the 4.4% growth as comparatively respectable. Yet, beneath the surface, a troubling pattern emerged: a third consecutive year of missed economic targets under the current administration.
The slowdown wasn’t unexpected. A corruption scandal involving flood control projects had brought government spending to a standstill, effectively choking off vital economic momentum. While funds were eventually cleared for release, the damage was done, casting a pall over the nation’s economic prospects.
The Marcos administration now aims for a rebound, setting ambitious growth targets of 5-6% in 2026, 5.5-6.5% in 2027, and 6-7% in 2028. These goals, however, represent a significant downward revision of earlier projections, relying heavily on controlled inflation, remittances, and export growth.
Private sector analysts remain skeptical, predicting continued struggles to reach the 6% growth potential. A true recovery, they argue, hinges on restoring public trust shattered by the corruption scandal – a trust that has proven difficult to rebuild.
But some suggest a pragmatic, if unsettling, view. Economist Alvin Arogo believes that public outrage over corruption is often fleeting. He posits that the economic drag from anti-corruption efforts is typically temporary, as a desire for economic expansion eventually overrides concerns about wrongdoing. A troubling question arises: forgive and forget?
Just a year prior, in April 2023, the outlook was dramatically different. Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, hailed the Philippines as a rising economic star, boasting a 7.6% growth rate in 2022 – the fastest in nearly five decades. He predicted a trillion-dollar economy by 2033, positioning the Philippines as a leading emerging market.
Data from the World Bank initially supported this optimism, showing growth rates of -9.5% in 2020, 5.7% in 2021, 7.6% in 2022, 5.5% in 2023, and 5.7% in 2024. Projections for 2026 and 2027 remained positive, forecasting expansion of 5.3% and 5.4% respectively.
Early in 2025, the Department of Finance celebrated a 5.6% GDP growth, touting it as the second fastest in ASEAN. A P6.326-trillion national budget was presented as a powerful tool to counter risks and deliver benefits to Filipinos. But this optimism was short-lived, overshadowed by the unfolding corruption scandal.
The signing of the P6.793-trillion budget for 2026 continued the focus on education, health, food security, and job creation. Yet, concerns lingered over “unprogrammed appropriations” – a potential source of further corruption linked to the flood control projects.
Former Economic Planning Minister Solita Monsod argues that the government itself froze public construction funding, not the investigation. Agencies, fearing implication, hesitated to approve expenditures, creating a self-inflicted wound. This inaction, she contends, was a display of inefficiency, not a necessary step to restore trust.
The investigation, Monsod points out, has yielded limited results, with only a handful of individuals facing consequences. The “big fishes” remain largely untouched, leaving the public disillusioned and questioning the sincerity of the anti-corruption efforts.
But the true tragedy, according to Monsod, isn’t the corruption itself, but the confusion it breeds. A lack of economic understanding leaves citizens vulnerable to manipulation, unable to make informed decisions about their future. “Without a basic understanding of economics,” she warns, “we go through life with one hand tied behind our back.”
The core issue, she emphasizes, is a lack of transparency. “What are they telling us? And more importantly, what are they *not* telling us?” The government’s shifting GDP projections – revised downward three times in 2025 – raise further questions about the true state of the economy.
Monsod observes a disheartening pattern repeating itself over the past 50 years: rice crises, job shortages, bureaucratic corruption, debt problems, and political malfeasance. While the players change, the underlying issues remain stubbornly persistent. Political dynasties offer solutions devoid of data or evidence, further contributing to the confusion.
“Filipinos are confused,” she laments, “and when people are confused, they are so easy to manipulate.” She believes leaders are serving their own interests, not the people they represent. Her call to action is clear: citizens must question, engage, and strive for understanding.
The question lingers, echoing a sentiment felt by many: “What is it really, Brother?” The path forward demands not just accountability, but a commitment to transparency, economic literacy, and a willingness to challenge the status quo.
