A fragile path toward ending the five-and-a-half week government shutdown is emerging from behind closed doors, born from a late-night meeting at the White House and now facing a critical test within the Republican conference.
The core of the evolving plan involves funding the vast majority of the Department of Homeland Security, but deliberately excluding funding for specific, contentious ICE operations – a surprising shift mirroring strategies previously proposed by Democrats.
This unexpected turn comes after repeated attempts by Democrats to pass DHS funding bills that specifically excluded certain ICE programs, a tactic now being adopted by Republicans who believe it’s the only way to break the deadlock.
The strategy isn’t without risk; Republicans are essentially “calling the Democrats’ bluff,” according to one Senate source, anticipating potential resistance despite the origin of the idea.
Crucially, any resolution will require bipartisan support – a minimum of 60 votes to overcome a potential filibuster – and a unified front between the House and Senate, a coordination that currently doesn’t exist.
Heightening the pressure, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are increasingly concerned about national security vulnerabilities, particularly the growing risk of a terrorist attack, and the visible disruptions caused by lengthy airport security lines.
Simultaneously, Republicans are attempting to salvage elements of the previously stalled “SAVE America Act,” hoping to secure a commitment from Senator Mike Lee to postpone further debate until after the Easter/Passover recess.
However, the “SAVE America Act” currently lacks the votes for passage, prompting consideration of incorporating some of its provisions into a budget reconciliation package – a legislative tool that bypasses the filibuster.
Reconciliation, however, is limited to fiscal matters, meaning any provisions must directly relate to spending and numbers, posing a challenge to including policy-driven aspects of the “SAVE America Act.”
Republicans are exploring the possibility of funding certain ICE enforcement and removal programs through reconciliation, while focusing on the more financially-focused elements of the “SAVE America Act,” such as withholding funds from states lacking photo ID requirements for voting.
But even this approach faces a significant hurdle: the Senate Parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, could rule any policy-based provisions within the reconciliation package as out of order, effectively blocking their inclusion.
The coming hours promise intense negotiations and a crucial test of whether this calculated gamble – adopting a Democratic strategy – can finally bring an end to the prolonged shutdown and address the growing anxieties surrounding national security.
