A quiet shift is underway in Africa, one that’s reshaping the continent’s geopolitical landscape. Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is dramatically expanding its influence – through military sales, economic investment, and a carefully cultivated diplomatic presence. This expansion isn’t simply about trade; it’s a calculated strategy with potentially far-reaching consequences.
The core of Turkey’s growing power lies in its arms industry, particularly its drones. These aren’t just weapons; they’re a disruptive force, offered at a fraction of the cost of American or European equivalents. Reports indicate Turkish companies have been supplying drones to *both* sides of the brutal conflict in Sudan, a move that prolongs the fighting and directly challenges U.S. policy aimed at ending external military support.
This isn’t an isolated incident. Turkey is rapidly becoming a top weapons provider to Africa, capitalizing on instability and conflict. Experts suggest profit maximization appears to be the driving force, with little regard for the impact on regional power balances, especially in volatile areas like the Sahel. The more chaos, the stronger Erdogan’s position becomes.
The economic engine driving this expansion is equally impressive. Trade with Africa has surged from $5.4 billion in 2003 to a staggering $41 billion in 2024. Turkish Airlines, a state-backed carrier, is at the forefront, now serving 64 African destinations – effectively opening doors for Turkish businesses and solidifying Ankara’s presence.
But the ambition extends beyond economics and military might. Some analysts believe Turkey is pursuing a “neo-Ottoman” foreign policy, echoing the historical reach of the Ottoman Empire and its influence over Islamic communities. This ambition raises concerns about Ankara’s support for Islamist movements and its potential to undermine U.S. interests in the region.
The TB2 drone, manufactured by a company linked to Erdogan’s family, is a prime example of this strategy. Its affordability and accessibility make it a compelling alternative to Western systems, allowing Turkey to establish relationships with regimes and militias that might otherwise be out of reach. It’s a deliberate effort to position Turkey as a low-cost, low-conditionality partner.
This isn’t simply about commercial transactions; it’s about securing access to ports, establishing bases, and cultivating long-term client relationships. Turkish Airlines isn’t just an airline; it’s a soft-power tool, enabling Ankara’s broader agenda and facilitating its diplomatic and security priorities across the continent.
The implications for the United States are significant. Turkey’s model directly competes with, and often undermines, U.S. efforts to promote conflict mitigation and stability in Africa. As Turkey’s influence grows, Washington faces a critical challenge: how to respond to a rising power that’s reshaping the geopolitical landscape of an increasingly important continent.
